“Canadian staycation” weekend; Summer returns Monday; Dorian into Gulf of Mexico next week?

In search of July

I know. Nobody in Minnesota wants to hear about a September like weather pattern for the last weekend of July. Especially after what we slogged through this “spring.” Sometimes the unpleasant part of a meteorologist’s job is to channel Joe Friday. “Just the facts ma’am.”

Maybe you would rather I do my best Johnny Lang? “Lie to me!”

A dose of Minnesota weather reality is here either way. Our “Canadian staycation” is here through the weekend. A sort of “virtual atmospheric Canadian vacation” visits Minnesota  this weekend as Canada’s weather pushes south. Sweatshirts replace beach blankets for now. Furnaces and wood stoves will fire in northeast Minnesota. The Tall Ships Festival in Duluth will have a decidedly Nordic feel. Frost in the cooler nooks and crannies of northeast Minnesota like Embarrass and the Boundary Waters Canoe Area this weekend? Not out of the question.

I’m also keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Dorian as she chugs westward in the general direction of Cuba by early next week. The latest “spaghetti modes suggest Dorian may favor a track into the Gulf of Mexico or southeast United States. All eyes in the southeast and Gulf Coast will need to stay on Dorian this weekend.

The weather good news? Summer and high in the 80s return next week.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

57 degrees - new record low maximum temp at International Falls Friday

61 degrees – High at Duluth Friday is average for September 30th

Late September weekend

There’s just no denying it. This weekend will feel more like late September than late July. The weather calendar has jumped a full 2 months ahead. Our forecast highs of 68 to 72 in the metro this weekend are average for about Sept. 21.

We’ll “enjoy” cool breezes and a sun cloud mix this weekend. A few pop up rain showers will pass by favoring afternoon through Saturday in the eastern third of Minnesota and most of Wisconsin. High again n the 50s along Lake Superior? Quite the “summer” this year along the beautiful North Shore.

Image: Duluth NWS

The epicenter of the chill centers on Lake Superior as a cut off low swirls overhead. Sweatshirts and even rain gear not optional if you are checking out the Tall Ships Festival in Duluth this weekend.

Sweatshirts in vogue in Duluth this weekend. Image: Lake Superior Maritime Museum webcam

The northern chill may actually approach record levels in Duluth and northeast Minnesota.

Image: Duluth NWS

Here are the chilly numbers for the Twin Cities this weekend.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

No need for widespread panic: Summer returns next week

Southerly breezes will blow again next week. Temps return to the lower 80s,  and a touch more humidity will return. Still plenty of good days at the beach left this summer. The best opportunity for another free lawn watering comes late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Image: NOAA GFS forecast temps and precip

 Tropical Storm Dorian: Possible U.S. threat next week.

Dorian is chugging steadily westward this weekend. The latest track tends favor a continued westerly path, which will likely bring Dorian’s rains and some wind to Puerto Rico by Sunday — and possibly send her to Cuba early next week.

Here’s the “official” National Hurricane Center forecast track.

Image: NOAA NHC

After that the so called “spaghetti models” suite of various forecast model guidance favors a track into the Gulf of Mexico. That’s a change from yesterday..which is why we generally don’t put much credence into confident sounding hurricane alerts a week in advance. It’s still too early to say where Dorian will be in a week. But the latest trends seem to favor a possible path into the Gulf of Mexico.

Image: NOAA via SFWMD

Watch for possible changes and updates on Dorian’s path this weekend here at the South Florida Water Management website.

Here’s the Weather Underground version.

Image: Weather Underground