Warm and sultry with bouts of heavy rain and strong storms

Wednesday was indeed one of our better weather days of June.  Temperatures were in the upper 70s to the 80s across much of Minnesota.

A warm front is pushing north through southern Minnesota this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms blossomed in eastern South Dakota last night and have moved into west central Minnesota.

Radar
Screen capture of showers and thunderstorms at 622 a.m. CDT (Source:Wunderground.com)

Widely scattered showers were over southeast Minnesota at daybreak.

The cluster of thunderstorm is nicely depicted by the NOAA GOES enhanced IR image this morning.

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Enhanced IR image
IR Satellite from NOAA shortly after daybreak.

A warm and more humid day is on tap for Thursday. Morning thunderstorms are expected to decay and another round of storms is likely to erupt this afternoon.

The RAP model has temperatures climbing well into the 80s in southern and central Minnesota.

RAP surface map 5 p.m. CDT
RAP model surface weather map valid at 5 p.m. CDT. Temperatures in red. Wind direction and speed in knots. Source:NOAA

NOAA's Storm Precdiction Center has a large part of Minnesota under a risk of severe thunderstorms the next 24 hours.  There is also the possibility of isolated tornadoes.

SPC day one outlook
Probability of damaging winds and large hail today and toniight.

You can track more of the development of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center.

We don't want to lose sight of the potential for locally heavy rain through the weekend.  Attempting to pinpoint a region most likely to get dumped on is challenging.

The NAM predicts an accumulation of several inches of rainfall through 1 p.m. CDT Sunday.

NAM rainfall accumulation
NAM rainfall accumulation through 1 p.m. CDT Sunday. (Source:NOAA/College of DuPage)

Your outdoor activities will be held under changeable skies along with very warm and humid conditions on the weekend.  Be prepared to take shelter indoors if storms approach.

NWS maximum temperatures Sat
High temperatures for Saturday. (Source National Weather Service)

Thunderstorms are most likely in the late afternoon and through the overnight hours.