Severe Risk late PM & Tonight: “Bow Echo” damaging winds & large hail possible

**Severe Risk late PM & Tonight**

The Weather Lab awoke to some pretty alarming wording from NOAA’s SPC today highlighting the risk for another “Linear MCS” or Bow Echo rumbling across southern Minnesota later today and tonight. Looking at the variables, I agree there is a good chance for some severe storms later today.

Not to be overly dramatic here, but there are a few things we should all do now to be ahead of the storm threat later today and this evening.

– Inform family, friends and coworkers about the potential severe threat today.

-Keep plans flexible late PM & tonight in anticipation of severe storms. Are you the boss? Consider letting people go home early this PM if severe weather watches are issued.

-Fully charge up your cell phone and prep any other “power sensitive” devices.

-Have your NOAA Weather Radio handy and tuned up to go

-Keep an eye out for watches and possible warnings later PM & tonight.

Some good news? The AM model runs suggest there is some chance the most severe storms may stay south of the metro this evening, but I’m not ready to write off any severe threat just yet. Let’s stay ahead of this one…and hope for the best scenario later today & tonight.

NOAA’s SPC paints a slight risk for severe weather over most of Minnesota late today & tonight. Image: NOAA SPC

Recipe For Severe:

What do you get when you add morning sunshine, dew points in the mid-60s and an inbound upper level low pressure wave in late June? A good chance for severe storms.

Check out NOAA’s attention getting wording in the morning “Convective Outlook” for storms developing in the Dakotas, and spreading east into Minnesota late today & tonight.

…DAKOTAS…
A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH…WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION/15-25 KNOTS/ SUGGESTING THAT MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER…DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL YIELD A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

A closer look shows the best chance of individual “discrete” supercells developing in Minnesota…then mutating into another potential MCS or “bow echo” with damaging winds later as storms move southeast into Iowa and Illinois. Another bumpy night for Chicago?

Highest chances for damaging winds favor eastern Iowa and northern Illinois later today & tonight. Image: NOAA SPC

Ripe For Development:

The morning 1km GOES visible shows something forecasters worry about this time of year. A mostly sunny sky with dew points in the mid 60s. That means a warm steamy atmosphere later today that can bubble up into big thunderstorms.

Mixed sun and 60s dew points. Ample fuels for late day T-Storms. Image: NOAA/College of Dupage Weather Lab

Bottom Line: 

There is a slight risk for severe storms packing hail up to 2″ in diameter, heavy rain, damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes in southern Minnesota later today and tonight. While the highest risk for severe storms favors Iowa and Illinois, keep an eye out for watches and warnings later today.

Good News From Xcel Energy:

Power restoration is nearly complete as crews from several states converge on the metro to clean up from last weekends storm damage. Here’s an update from Xcel Energy.

Update as of 8:30 p.m., Monday, June 24

Xcel Energy reports tonight that crews have completed restoring customers in the St. Cloud area who lost service due to Friday’s severe storms. An estimated 30,000 St. Cloud area customers were affected.
Xcel Energy crews, contractors and mutual aid responders continue restoring electricity service in the Twin Cities metro area in the wake of storms that knocked out power to 588,000 Minnesota customers.
As of 8:30 p.m. today, crews had restored power to more than 560,000 customers in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and other parts of Minnesota. Work continues to restore the remaining 28,000 customers, located primarily in the west metro area. Xcel Energy expects to restore power to the vast majority of customers by noon Wednesday.

Severe Chicago:

Smaller swirls on leading edge of last night’s Chicago gust front indicate possible “gustnadoes” capable of producing brief tornado touchdowns. Image: Weather Underground

They won the Stanley Cup last night….and Chicago is still cleaning up after last nights party on Michigan Avenue…and the damaging bow echo that raced through town with 70+ mph winds. Here’s’ an excerpt from the Sun Times as crews work to restore power.

82,000 still without power after storms knock out electricity for 300,000

Roughly 650 crews worked overnight to restore power to about 218,000 ComEd customers who were without electricity after powerful thunderstorms blasted through the Chicago region Monday.

That still leaves roughly 82,000 ComEd customers without power.

As of 4 a.m., most of the outages were concentrated in the south suburbs, where roughly 55,000 were without power, ComEd spokeswoman Ashley Dennison said.

About 14,000 Chicago residents were without power, as were 9,000 in the north suburbs and about 4,000 customers in the west suburbs, she added.

The strong evening winds came from a fast-moving line of thunderstorms. At their most intense, the winds snapped trees, snarled road and rail commutes and left about 300,000 ComEd customers without power,

“The forward speed of this [storm] at times was 65 miles per hour.” National Weather Service Meteorologist Matt Friedlein said. “That is very quick-moving.”

Let’s hope the Wild can take another step forward toward the Cup next year. I hear Bryan Bickell is a free agent? We could use another strong power forward!

Paul Huttner

 

 

  • Presley Martin

    Is a “bow echo” the same as a derecho? Do they ever travel in a direction other than west to east?