Storm chances increase late PM & Tuesday but less “severe” week ahead

Weather Headlines: Storm Free Zone For Now…

-Less widespread and less frequent severe weather chances this week

-SPC has shifted today’s severe risk slightly south, the metro is not included in the “slight risk” today

-Showers and T-Storms will return by tonight, but the heaviest storms/rains may favor southern MN & the I-90 corridor

-Highest severe risk looks like Tuesday PM/evening

-Drier & quieter pattern shaping up from Thursday into next weekend

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Coming Up For Air:

We catch another welcome break from storms for most of today in Minnesota.

Day #2 without bow echoes on radar and multi-colored storm based warnings on the map is a good thing. Yes, the trends are encouraging for less widespread severe weather as we move through this week. But we still have a few more bumpy ride T-Storms to get through, especially later tonight and Tuesday.

Next Wave pushing into southwest Minnesota today:

While the Twin Cities may be storm free this morning, the next wave of storms is already making a beeline for southwest Minnesota and the I-90 corridor. The Sioux Falls doppler shows a burgeoning line of mostly non-severe storms heading northeast this morning.

Storms pushing along I-90 today. Image: Weather Underground

SPC: Severe risk shifts slightly south

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has nudged today’s severe risk slightly south….and the Twin Cities is technically not included in the “slight risk” area today. The best chances for severe storms packing high winds, hail and torrential rains favors southern Minnesota and the I-90 corridor and southwest Minnesota.

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Severe again Tuesday?

The highest risk for another round of severe storms with high winds favors Tuesday afternoon & evening. SPC paints a slight risk over much of Minnesota tomorrow.

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“Typical” June Severe pattern?

Last week’s storms were widespread and unusually severe from a wind damage standpoint, but reaching our severe weather “peak” is typical in June in Minnesota. Looking at severe weather reports form the Chanhassen NWS office, you can see we typically reach our “climatological” peak severe season between Memorial Day and the 4th of July…with a sharp dropoff in severe episodes after the 4th.

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Last year was an anomaly…the storm faucet simply shut off as drought took hold over the Midwest. This year the jet is running right over Minnesota…a very typical pattern for June. There are signs the jet will gradually lift north into Canada the next 7-14 days…and we should see a drop off in the number of severe events in the next week or two.

Good news for storm weary Minnesotans.

A Month’s Worth of Rain:

June is our wettest month of the year on average in Minnesota. We average 4.25″ of rainfall at MSP in June. We’ve already picked up 4.7″ this month at MSP Airport…with some areas now well over 6″ for the month. That’s a months worth of rain in one week.

Here’s why trees just can’t stand up to the onslaught of winds….as saturated soils increase the number of “uprooted” trees in Minnesota when storm blow through.

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Lakes & Rivers Respond:

The deluge has spiked river and lake levels around Minnesota. It’s simply remarkable how we’ve gone from drought to flood in a matter of months. Lake Minnetonka is up over 2 feet since last fall…and Minnehaha Creek is flowing at “dangerous” levels for canoeists these days.

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This is the highest level on Lake Minnetonka in just over 2 years.

The weekend deluge spiked the level of Minnehaha Creek…with a sharp rise over 1.5 feet early Friday.

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The Minnehaha Creek Watershed District advises flow levels above 150 CFS can be “dangerous” to canoeists on the creek. Take it easy around rapidly flowing water this week.

Paul Huttner

 

 

 

 

  • Craig

    Looks like the SPC has shifted the metro back into the slight risk with the new 11:30 am issuance.