Partly soggy “Graduation” weekend; Growing confidence for 80F next week?

In Search of Summer

This is way past getting old for many Minnesotans, and for meteorologists.

It's part of our job to be the "weather chat room" for our listeners, readers and viewers. Even though many complain in winter about cold and snow...many Minnesotans tell me they like the cold and snow during winter. Not one person has told me me they like weeks of cloudy, cool dreary weather in May & June.

Yes, we earn our summers in Minnesota. What did we do wrong to earn this endless "Seattle spring" this year? Atmospheric payback for the warmest spring on record in 2012?

Maybe.

This weekend is full of graduation parties for the Class of 2013. In this Updraft we look at the best chances for getting some dry outdoor hours for your party. We also look hopefully to late next week...when all available model runs favor a growing chance of a string of temps at or near 80F.

At this rate I may have to break into programming on MPR News or The Current with a "sunscreen alert" if/when the temp hits 80F next week.

"Graduation Weekend" looks partly soggy: (as usual)

Want to guarantee a wet weekend for outdoor events in Minnesota? Plan it on the 1st weekends in June.

"Climatologically" speaking, early June is among the wettest times of the year in Minnesota. It's no wonder so many well intentioned "outdoor" graduation parties end up in the garage. At least the garage door is usually open.

This weekend will be a typical early June weekend. A strengthening low pressure system spins in from the Rockies with rain and some thunder possible Saturday night...and lingers into Sunday with a cool, showery weather regime.

Your best chance of several dry hours appear to be during the day Saturday. Here's the Euro models hour by hour "meteogram" for this weekend. Temps are in Celsius. (Those wacky Europeans!)

Here's the NAM model solution on the weekend system...with blobs of rainfall blowing up over Iowa and southern Minnesota by Saturday evening and lingering into Sunday..

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The suite of model "guidance" (and that's a generous term considering model performance lately) suggest another 1"+ is possible for the metro again Saturday night into Sunday.

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The best chance for another (unwelcome?) 1-2" rainfall will favor southern Minnesota and northern Iowa with this system.

At least the heaviest rain may fall in some areas in Minnesota in most need of rain to eliminate what's left of the fading drought.

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If we can get southwest Minnesota bumped out of the drought category this weekend... can we "cry uncle" and get on with some drier...and warmer summer like weather please??

"Andrea" rains out Twins:

It's now "Post Tropical Cyclone Andrea."

That's what NOAA calls tropical cyclones after they lose the "warm core" characteristics that make the systems tick.

Andrea is dumping some 2" to 5" rainfall totals along the east Coast.

Here's the doppler "storm total rainfall" as the system approaches Washington D.C showing narrow bands of heavy rain that has already come down.

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I'll have to confirm with Twin's weather guru and my partner in weather crime Craig Edwards....but the Twins must lead the league in rainouts so far this year.

Capital Weather Gang has more on the rain out...and doubleheader for Sunday.

Searching for 80F:

Nothing would be better tonic right now for Minnesotans than a dose of sun and temps at or near 80F.

The forecast models are coming into better agreement that it may happen late next week.

One of the indicators we watch for a pattern change is a shift in the AO...or Arctic Oscillation. When the AO is negative as it has been lately...we are usually cold and wet in Minnesota.

There are signs the AO may go strongly "positive" later next week. That would favor a warmer...and drier weather pattern.

That could...and should mean a good shot at 80F by late next week. here's the GFS forecast output...which shows highs in the low 80s starting on Wednesday.

The Euro is a little tamer on temps with upper 70s...and maybe 80F by next Saturday...but offers hope for string of "sunnier" days next week.

I know I've said "hang in there" about 100 times this late winter and spring...but what is the alternative? Should I say "give up?"

So...hang in there!

Paul Huttner