May-Soon Continues: Windy with scattered storms; Top 15 wettest May?

Make It Stop

That’s the plea I’m hearing these days from friends & neighbors.

“Is it going to be like this all “summer” Paul?”

Probably not…but for the foreseeable future. That’s about 2 weeks in weather.

493 downpour.jpg

Today we add wind to the weather smorgasbord. A strong “low level jet stream (LLJ) is howling at 50mph about 5,000 feet overhead. Some of that “momentum” will transfer gusty winds down to ground level where we live. SE gusts may approach 30 mph at times.

May is ready to go in the books as yet another “extreme weather” month in Minnesota.

We’ve literally gone from drought to flood warnings in 30 days…with standing water in farmers fields and lake levels rising nearly 2 feet in some cases since fall.

Any chance we’ll come up for air soon? I’ll kick the Weather Lab Doppler a few times today and see what happens.

6″ May rainfall total at MSP Airport

6.15″ = 15th wettest May on record at MSP (we’ll likely get there by tomorrow)

21 of 30 days(70%) so far in May with at least a trace of precip at MSP Airport

494 wxs.png

Windy, with a chance

The low pressure center plaguing Minnesota with waves of rain this week is still spinning away blissfully in the Dakotas today.

As the pressure gradient winds up ahead of the low, a strong low level jet stream of 50 kts is howling overhead. Thai means more wind today…and gusts could approach 30 mph at times.

The latest NAM model show tightly “packed isobars” over eastern Minnesota today…and brings a few more waves of showers and T-Storms today and Friday PM.

494 nam anim.gif

Friday morning may dawn dry and sunny. As the low finally begins to push east Friday afternoon, the advancing cold front could trigger rapid development of a line of T-Storms right over the metro. Keep an eye out for developing T-Storms Friday PM.

May-Soon: Top 15 wettest in metro?

With nearly 6″ rain so far this month at MSP Airport, we’re creeping up on another “top 15″ weather event. Here’s the list of the 15 wettest Mays from the MN Climate Working Group.

494 may top 15 rainfall.png

With more rain possible today and tomorrow, there’s a good chance we’ll move into at least 15th place by Friday night.

Less “Severe” Today?

We got off pretty easy on the severe front the past 2 days. Last night’s storms mean the atmosphere overhead is pretty “worked over” today. Scattered showers and T-Storms will still race north today…but they may have less tendency to go severe.

NOAA’s SPC has dropped the “slight risk” area further south today into Iowa.

494 risk.png

Still, with a 50 knot LL(cool?)J racing overhead, any storms that do form could easily transfer the momentum to some gusty winds at ground level today.

Drought Busted:

Today’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show fading drought (and increased flooding) in the Midwest. Streams are above bankfull in parts of Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

494 dm.png

NOAA’s AHPS 30-day rainfall totals show an incredible rainfall “bull’s eye” right over the Midwest…and the heart of the worst drought stricken areas of 2012. Rainfall totals in southeast Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri have exceeded 10″ to 15″ in some areas.

494 ahps.png

Wet next week too?

Looking ahead…our stubborn low finally pulls out Saturday and we salvage the last half of the weekend. We come up for air Sunday & Monday before the rains return next week.

494 16 day.png

Today: Windy with scattered rain & thunder. High 77. Gusty SE winds 15-30 mph.

Friday: Sunny start, PM storms develop. High 77.

Saturday: Cool exhaust. Scattered showers. High 66.

Sunday: Mostly sunny & pleasantly cool. High near 68.

Monday: Mixed sun and dry again. High near 70.

Tuesday-Thursday: Chance for more scattered rain & thunder. Highs near 70.

Next weekend: Chance for a late week drying trend. Big weekend for Class of 2013 Grad parties.

Tropical Trouble Brewing?

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts Saturday. Could we at least wait a week before the 1st named storm brews up? Probably not.

Heres’ the GFS version of what could become Tropical Storm “Andrea” and apporach the Gulf Coast by around June 7-8th.

494 andrea.png

Both NOAA and CSU are forecasting an active season this year. Here’s the list of Atlantic Storm names. Let’s hope we don’t get to “Pablo.”

494 atlantic names.png

Stay tuned, and hang in there!

Paul Huttner

  • Chris

    It’s June and there is hardly a bug (mosquitos anyway) in sight. We should be cheering. Found a few other blood suckers though last weekend.