“May-soon” continues; More scattered rain & T-Storms today; Slight severe risk

May Monsoon

Spring has turned tropical in Minnesota. Our parade of storms hasn't stopped...it just warmed up.

At least we don't have to shovel it.

50 tornado reports over the weekend in the Central Plains? Nearly 3" rainfall totals over central Minnesota and the metro?

I'd call that a "productive" system. Do the Twins lead the Majors in rain delays this year?

Our rain & thunder threat lingers today and tomorrow. With an active warm front draped over Minnesota we could see a few more severe storms again this afternoon & evening.

Keep the weather radio handy again later today.

Stormy Target Field Sunday

Image: Luke Huttner

Eventful Severe Weekend

The thundery weekend onslaught triggered several significant events in Minnesota.

-Minnesota's 1st tornado of 2013 touched down Friday at 5:45pm near Wilder in Jackson County in southwest Minnesota. No damage was reported.

-The 1st tornado warning of 2013 for metro area counties (Pierce & St. Croix) was issued Sunday PM

-Two raucous "sunrise surprise" T-Storms outbreak pounded the Twin Cities Saturday & Sunday AM

-The 1st Tornado Watch of 2013 for the metro was issued Sunday

-Several reports of wind gusts between 60 & 70 mph raked the southeast metro Sunday PM

-The Twin Cities piled up 2.88" of rainfall at MSP Airport since Friday.

-May rainfall now stands at 3.74" (that's +1.68 vs. average)

Can the mosquitoes be far behind?

Here's a map from the Twin Cities NWS with Sunday's severe weather reports.

And the national map from SPC.

How To Dismantle A Drought:

The productive rains have piled up in Minnesota. A good chunk of the Dakotas and Minnesota bagged some 2"-3" rainfall totals last weekend.

Lollygagging Low

Our frequent tropical deluge is courtesy of another stalled weather pattern. As the "vertically stacked" upper level and surface spin in the eastern Dakotas, waves of showers & T-Storms break out in MInnesota. Like cards in a 10 year olds bicycle wheel, each time an upper air disturbance blows by we get a wave of rain & thunder.

Monday's Weather Tap IR loop shows the low spinning away in the eastern Dakotas.

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Expect the next wave of rain & thunder this afternoon and evening, especially from the Twin Cities north through the northern half of Minnesota.

Severe Risk Lingers:

The atmosphere will get irritable again this afternoon, and should be unstable enough to produce a few severe T-Storms later this afternoon and evening... mainly from the Twin Cities east.

Here's today's severe risk from SPC.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF IA/WI EASTWARD INTO MI/OH. RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE CAP SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MN. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...WHILE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HELPS TO ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MULTIPLE LINES/CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THIS REGION...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Our stubborn low will finally move out Wednesday.

The sunniest brightest days of the week? Thursday & Friday. Naturally.

The early look at Memorial Day Weekend calls for a mix of sun & clouds with a chance of scattered showers & T-Storms and high in the 70s.

Paul Huttner