Record setting Spring of 2013; Friday PM T-Storms; Tropical Storm “Andrea?”

Welcome To The Jungle

Or the Rain Forest…take your pick.

Word comes in from my MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley today that this now ranks as one of the wettest and coolest springs in Minnesota history.

Ugh.

Our swirling upper low will finally start to move Friday….but not before another potential round of strong storms Friday afternoon & evening.

And just to keep it interesting, the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts Saturday. Will “Andrea” be the 1st tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in about a week?

So when can we find the sun again? Here’s at least one ray of hope in the forecast.

Schedule your tee times for Sunday & Monday.

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Seeley: 3rd coldest spring on record for Minnesota

Mark will have more on this in the 6am hour with Phil Picardi on Morning Edition Friday morning, but here’s a preview of this week’s Weather Talk.

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Topic: Preliminary climate summary for May 2013

For the 4th consecutive month Minnesota observers reported monthly mean temperatures that were cooler than normal. Most reports ranged from 1 to 3 degrees F cooler than normal for May. Combined with the temperature data for March and April, the overall spring temperatures (March-May) were the third coldest in state history, trailing only 1907, and 1950.

Extremes for the month ranged from 103 degrees F at Sherburn (Martin County) and Winnebago (Faribault County) on the 14th to just 15 degrees F at Camp Norris (Lake of the Woods County) on the 12th.

Most observers reported above normal precipitation for the month of May, ranging from 4 to 6 inches. In many southern counties monthly precipitation was well above normal, and in some areas record-setting. Those reporting a new record wet May included: Austin (10.97″), Grand Meadow (14.39″), La Crescent (10.18″), Rochester (10.56″), Spring Valley (12.23″), and Theilman (10.55″). In addition, many observers reported precipitation on over 20 days during the month.

Combined with the precipitation for March and April, the overall spring season (March-May) was the wettest in history for southeastern Minnesota, saturating soils, and putting streams and rivers near bank full.

The snow storm over the first few days of May established some records in southeastern Minnesota as well. Dodge Center reported a statewide daily record snowfall for May with 15.4 inches on the 2nd. Observer reports for snow totals ranged from 9 inches (Albert Lea) to 17.3 inches (Ellendale) across many areas of southern Minnesota in one of the snowiest Mays in state history.

Friday PM Storms?

Our stubborn “Dakota Low” has been wobbling in the Dakotas all week, sending wave of showers & T-Storms into Minnesota and driving severe weather outbreaks to the south.

The low finally goes on the move Friday.

As the cold front approaches the metro around “max heating” time in the late afternoon, a band of heavy T-Storms could pop up right overhead.

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Friday morning dawns clear in much of Minnesota….but keep an eye out for rapidly developing PM/evening storms.

Weekend Outlook: Split decision

Saturday looks cool and showery as the upper lows backside exhaust kicks in a north wind over Minnesota. Look for highs in the 60s.

Sunday & Monday look much better…more sun and highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Not exactly summer just yet…but at least some sun and dry weather.

Where’s my lawn mower?

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Hurricane Season 2013: Tropical Storm Andrea within 1 week?

NOAA, CSU and everyone else is calling for an active hurricane season.

Both the GFS and Euro models have been hinting at a possible Tropical Storm by late next week in the Gulf of Mexico.

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With 100 million Americans living with a couple hours of the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, we’re all a little gun shy after Sandy tore up the eastern seaboard last fall.

The science of hurricane forecasting does not support a way to credibly tell us how many storms will hit the USA each year. The long term average is about 2 named storms per year.

Here is why NOAA thinks this could be an active season.


For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

•A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;

•Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and

•El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa.”

Paul Huttner

  • Israel

    I’ve noticed that the GFS model has been very consistent over the last several days in forming “Andrea.”

  • Jon

    Gumball-sized hail in Roseville 2 p.m. 5/31