Winter making a comeback, but not by popular demand; snow in April

Paul mentioned here last week that the EURO model was teasing us with a potential snowmaker the middle of this week. Well, snow lovers and non-lovers, this may be a reality.

mpxsnow.png

The forecast models are showing a developing low pressure system that as the potential to dump several inches of snow from Nebraska, though northwest Iowa and into southwest and central Minnesota. This low pressure track favors heavy wet snow, well north of the storm’s projected path.

lowtrack_circles.gif

Source:NOAA

Here is the probability of snowfall of greater than four inches on Wednesday into Wednesday night.

daythreesnow4.gif

Source:NOAA NCEP

It is still a little early to project snowfall totals in Minnesota, but some locations between Sioux Falls, S.D. to the Twin Cities, Willmar and St. Cloud may get up to six inches.

Temperatures are expected to hold in the middle 30s on Wednesday, some 20 degrees colder than the seasonal normal.

maxtwed.png

Overnight rainfall tallied more than half an inch at many locations. I measured 0.88 inches of precipitation as of 6 a.m. CDT.

This radar image from 6 a.m. CDT gives an estimation of the total precipitation since last evening. Note the heavier amounts, well over an inch in west central Wisconsin. Radar sometimes overestimates the actual reports, but this clearly identifies the region that received the most rain.

Monpvpn.gif

Source:Weather underground

Wisconsin is no longer considered to be in drought. Rivers and streams will continue to rise and perhaps exceed their banks as heavy rain threatens the region this week.

arxpvi.png

Source:NOAA/NWS LaCrosse, WI

NOAA forecasters paint a very wet picture over the country’s midsection.

threeday.gif

Source”NOAA NCEP

I suppose the silver lining here is that the bulk of the moisture stays south of the Red River Valley.

In the warmer airmass, there will be a threat for severe weather and even tornadoes. The forecast calls for severe weather to focus from Nebraska to north Texas today.

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

I jabbed the soil a little on Sunday afternoon and some of the frost is out of the surface layer. Incoming moisture may find a way to premeate into the landscape, while a good portion of the rain will find its way to streams, ponds, creeks and eventually the mainstream rivers.

A huge dent in the Minnesota drought is expected to be made this week.

Craig Edwards

  • Luke

    Can you offer some explanation on why we are stuck with this awful, cold weather this year? It’s never been this consistently cold this late into April in my 15 or so years in Minnesota.

    I know you talk a lot about climate change, but what specifically is going on in the atmosphere that has us stuck in a “Little Ice Age” pattern with heavy clouds, sharp winds from the north, and this effect where every low pressure system turns into a snow maker as it crosses Iowa?

    Also, are states or other areas at similar latitudes experiencing weather like this? Is there something unique about our position near the prairies or Great Lakes that are contributing to this?