Milder breezes; Friday night rain; Rain or…snow next week?

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Making Progress

Finding spring this year is like driving uphill on ice. Creep slowly forward and easy on the gas pedal or you’ll spin your wheels. Slam on the brakes and you’ll start slipping downhill.

Nice & easy does it.

A milder breeze this afternoon is courtesy of a rare south to southwest wind blowing over snow free areas in Iowa & southwest Minnesota.

We take a step forward on spring the next few days. Melting snow, rain instead of snow falling from the sky.

Progress in the Reluctant Spring of 2013.

In this Updraft we track the warm up, the fading snow cover and a rainy weekend system. We’ll also look at a potentially mild… or wild wintery relapse next week depending on which model scenario wins out.

Close your eyes and pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. It may be too scary to look too far into the future.

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Milder Breezes:

Winds will gradually shift into the south & southwest today in southern Minnesota.

That’s important, because as the sun warms now snow free ground to the south & southwest, warm advection will blow into the Twin Cities this afternoon.

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Image: NOHRSC

Look for a pretty good “temp spike” between about 3-5 pm today.

Highs should push 50F in the metro and reach 60F in southwest Minnesota this afternoon.

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Fading Snow Cover:

There’s still plenty of snow up north, but snow cover is taking a big hit in southern Minnesota this week.

Today’s it’s sunshine and milder breezes.

By Friday night, soaking rains will fall on the weakening snow pack…further eroding what’s left.

Monday’s MODIS Terra image clearly shows the edge of the snow cover now at the Metro’s doorstep. You can also see still frozen lakes into northern Iowa and all the way south to Madison, Wisconsin.

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Friday Night Rain:

Our next weathermaker moves in Friday night with mostly rain for the metro, and some wet snow potential near and north of a Brainerd to Duluth line.

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Image: GFS via College of DuPage

Models seem to be settling in around .25″ to .50″ for the metro…with some heavier totals up north.

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Close Your Eyes: Snow next week?

Let’s hope this is “forecast model fantasy”…but the Euro is cranking out a big wet sloppy snow storm next week for the metro.

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Image: Euro via Environment Canada

If the Euro pans out…we take a snowy step backwards next Tuesday.

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If the GFS & Canadian GEM are right…a weaker, warmer system with a little rain. No big deal.

Place your bets.

Right now I’m suspicious of the snowy Euro solution. Or maybe I’m just afraid.

Enjoy the sunshine today!

PH

  • Lars

    Based on performance, I have to go with the Euro.