Impending blizzard-like conditions, burst of snow, blast of wind and a smack of cold

At daybreak on this St. Patrick’s Day, temperatures were more typical of a morning in early January.

Check out these readings from 5 a.m. CDT:

CITY SKY/WX TMP

BAUDETTE MOCLDY -20

FLAG ISLAND PTCLDY -20

INTL FALLS MOCLDY -23

WASKISH PTCLDY -24

BIG FORK PTCLDY -24

LONGVILLE PTCLDY -18

CRANE LAKE MOCLDY -26

ORR MOCLDY -20

COOK MOCLDY -24

We are tracking the advance of a fast-moving weather system that promises to bring a burst of snow and strong winds to the upper Midwest.

IR satellite from NOAA showing colder cloud tops with system tracking through Montana early Sunday morning:

irsatelliteimage.jpg

The National Weather Service has posted a variety of winter weather notices for later today, tonight and into Monday morning:

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From the National Weather Service in Chanhassen regarding the shaded area covered by a blizzard watch:

WWA12_northplains.png

THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH…WITH GUSTS

NEAR 50 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO

VISIBILITY IN OPEN AREAS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF EARLY

MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING

BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUBSIDING MONDAY EVENING.

Weather conditions will deteriorate from west to east during Sunday afternoon and evening. Snow is expected to reach the Twin Cities around midnight.

NOAA’s NCEP probabilities of snowfall of four or more inches ending at 7 a.m. CDT:

mpxsunday.png

This image from the GFS model from the 1 a.m. run depicts the liquid precipitation expected from 1 a.m. CDT Monday to 7 a.m. CDT Monday. The bulk of the snow is likely to occur in eastern Minnesota during that time. This burst of snow may slow a bit in Wisconsin, where snowfall totals could approach six inches:

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  • Luke

    You guys really wet your pants predicting a warm up this past week. How did you get it so wrong, why are we seemingly stuck with winter, what’s your (likely incorrect) estimation of when we’ll start getting some real spring-like weather?