Storm still on track, but not the fast track; near blizzard conditions Sunday night

The storm we’ve been anticipating since mid week emerged in eastern Colorado late this afternoon. Models have slowed down the northeast movement slightly, thus delaying the onset of significant precipitation until later tonight and Sunday morning.

The winter storm warning is highlighted in pink, with blizzard warning highlighted in orange:

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Warnings are in effect for late tonight through Sunday night. Minneapolis and St. Paul are included in the warning. The Twin Cities metro area is teetering on the southern boundary of heavy snow, where 4 to 8 inches may accumulate on Sunday through Monday morning.

A wintry mix, including sleet and freezing rain, is expected in the southeast corner of Minnesota and west central Wisconsin on Sunday.

For a detailed look at your local forecast explore the NWS website here. You’ll see the expansive area covered in winter storm warnings.

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This storm will blanket a large portion of the Midwest with generous precipitation.

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Liquid precipitation totals from the snow and wintry mixture will be beneficial to the regions that have experienced a relatively dry autumn and winter season.

Two day precipitation total from tonight through Monday:

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Source:NOAA/HPC.

Snow mixed with rain or freezing rain will develop in southwest and west central Minnesota tonight and spread east. The heaviest precipitation is likely to occur Sunday through Sunday evening.

Here is the ensemble track for the surface low center from NOAA’s NCEP:

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The most recent Rapid Update Cycle forecast model slows the track of the low moving through Nebraska and Iowa on Sunday. There is also evidence of a dry slot, or a pause in the precipitation for a time, on Sunday in south central Minnesota.

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Strong northwest winds kick in behind the low as it moves into Wisconsin on Sunday night. Falling temperatures will make for biting wind chill readings on Monday.

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Travel conditions are likely to be difficult on Sunday through early Monday morning. Please be prepared for very hazardous travel in open areas Sunday night due to reduced visibilities of blowing and drifting snow.

Craig Edwards

  • Ben Lewis

    So…. how does the storm’s final track match up to the Euro and NOAA models? Which one was more accurate?