Arctic Relapse: Worst sub-zero cold behind us after this week? 40F next week?

10″ to 11″ snowfall totals “Up North” at Cass Lake, Big Fork & Dixon Lake Tuesday

6″+ snowfall totals with next system from eastern Iowa through Madison & Green Bay Wednesday

Severe Outbreak heavy storms prompt severe weather watches & warnings from near Chicago to St. Louis to Texas.

Arctic Redux: Bitter sub-zero arctic air returns to Minnesota Wednesday through Friday

Worst of winter cold over after this week? Growing signs this week’s cold may be the last sustained sub-zero shot this winter

40F? Sustained thaw next week may produce +40F in southern Minnesota

Wetter pattern emerging? Signs point to a wetter pattern in the next few weeks

Brighter Days Ahead We’re gaining 3 additional minutes of daylight each day now!

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Welcome snow “up north”

Sunday’s 3″ metro snow burst was nice…but The Twin Cities can’t seem to buy a break on getting a major snowstorm lately.

Northern Minnesota is the latest area to get a decent dumping. A band of 5″+ fell from near Fargo through north central Minnesota to International Falls early Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

955 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES/ LOCATION / ST/ COUNTY

—— ———————– — ————– ——-

11.00 DIXON LAKE MN ITASCA

10.50 1 WNW TOWN OF CASS LAKE MN CASS

10.00 BIGFORK MN ITASCA

8.50 5 S LITTLEFORK MN KOOCHICHING

8.30 3 S NORTHOME MN ITASCA

8.00 14 SE INTERNATIONAL FAL MN KOOCHICHING

MEASURED AT KETTLE FALLS

8.00 2 SSW KABETOGAMA MN ST. LOUIS

7.60 7 S BIGFORK MN ITASCA

7.00 1 S WALKER MN CASS

6.50 TOGO MN ITASCA

6.50 INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN KOOCHICHING

6.40 INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN KOOCHICHING

3 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

6.30 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS

STILL SNOWING.

6.10 3 W INDUS MN KOOCHICHING

6.00 1 NNW FEDERAL DAM MN CASS

5.80 1 N HACKENSACK MN CASS

5.50 12 N GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA

5.50 DEER RIVER MN ITASCA

4.30 HACKENSACK MN CASS

4.10 POKEGAMA DAM MN ITASCA

4.00 8 W REMER MN CASS

4.00 8 ENE COOK MN ST. LOUIS

1.40 2 NE GRAND RAPIDS MN ITASCA

1.00 EMBARRASS MN ST. LOUIS

0.80 5 N BABBITT MN ST. LOUIS

0.50 CROSSLAKE MN CROW WING

0.50 7 NW BRAINERD MN CROW WING

0.50 LUTSEN MN COOK

Another “near miss” southeast:

The next system to detour around the Twin Cities is dumping a mixed bag of rain & snow to our southeast. Heavy rain and snowfall totals are soaking parts of several Midwestern states with this one. There’s just enough cold air on the system’s northwest side to produce a band of heavy wet snow from Iowa City to Dubuque, Madison & Green Bay.

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NAM snowfall output via wxcaster.com

Drought busting rains?

It takes a flood to end a drought….so they say.

This system is producing widespread meaningful rains over many drought plagued areas in the Midwest.

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How do you end a drought? One Flood Watch at a time. Rivers around Milwaukee and Chicago are rising rapidly this week.

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Along the squall line, severe weather reports are coming in.

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Next: Bitter cold returns

We’ll all be feeling the effects of our next arctic front Wednesday.

This latest shot of arctic air may not be quite as bitter…or as sustained as last week’s blast, but it will get you attention.

The cold air will peak Friday morning, with lows between -10F and -15F in the metro & suburbs…and -25F to -30F or colder up north.

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Temperatures will struggle to get to zero Thursday in the metro…and will stay sub-zero up north.

The good news?

This cold looks more fleeting that last week’s sustained cold wave…about 48 hours of “real” cold give or take.

Worst of winter’s cold behind us after this week?

I’m always hesitant to make big, sweeping declarations about overall seasonal patterns weeks in advance. The fact is…the dirty little secret in meteorology…the models just don’t have enough reliability beyond a week or two to say for sure which way weather trends will go with a “credible” degree of accuracy.

We try to fill in the longer term gaps with shifts in the “oscillations” such as the AO, NAO etc…but even those trends can’t reliably allow us to make credible declarations weeks ahead of time…even if we try and make them sound certain.

That said…trends do seem to suggest that this week’s arctic outbreak might be the worst we will see the rest of this winter.

I am more confident about saying that next week looks mild…perhaps even an extended thaw. A sustained milder southerly flow should boost temps above freezing several days next week.

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It’s quite possible that we’ll see a 40F temp pop up at you local bank thermometer by about next Thursday…maybe in the metro.

The Euro model is cranking out +5C or 41F next Thursday for the Twin Cities.

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The GFS spits out several days in the 30s next week…and suggest a return to somewhat colder air by the middle of February.

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By then, daylight increases and the sun angle is much higher…and it’s tougher to get sustained sub-zero cold in the metro.

Wetter too?

NOAA’s CPC is hinting at a wetter pattern for the next 2 weeks for the Upper Midwest.

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Overall atmospheric pattern seem to be evolving into more favorable environment for Midwest storms. One of these days, the Twin Cities area should hopefully get in on a big, sloppy late winter early spring type system.

Stay tuned.

PH

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