Friday Flakes? Models boosting chances for heavy weekend snow

Friday Forecast: Light snow possible PM & evening from the metro south

Coating to 2″ possible in and south of metro this afternoon & evening

Up to 3″+ possible well south of metro & along I-90 corridor

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Better chances for accumulating snows Saturday night into Sunday

What the models are saying for metro snow chances…

NAM: 4″ snowfall Saturday night & Sunday

European model: Up to 4″ Saturday night & Sunday

GFS: Up to 6″+ totals through Sunday for metro??

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Image: Caltech

The latest model runs are in, and all major models have dramatically increased snow potential for Saturday night & Sunday.

With less than 36 hours until the system arrives, the NAM model now cranks out as much as 4″+ snowfall (.42″ liquid) for the metro Saturday night into Sunday, with heavier totals up north.

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Image: NOAA NAM model via

The overnight European run has jumped on the recent trends set by the GFS and NAM models, and lays out .35″ liquid, which would translate into about 4″ snowfall.

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Image: Norwegian Met Institute

The GFS is even more bullish, suggesting 18 hours of snow that could pile up to over 6″+ in the metro by Sunday night from an impressive .74″ liquid.

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If the GFS output of .74″ verifies in the metro, it would lay down some impressive snow totals. Check out the latest 120 hour GFS snowfall output, keeping in mind this would include any snow that falls Friday.

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NOAA GFS 120 hour snowfall output via

The GFS is by far the most aggressive with the incoming system. It may be over the top, but the latest trends actually bring the other models closer to the GFS solution.

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Image: Iowa State University

These totals may (or may not) be aggressive, but the main point is that it now appears that Saturday night & Sunday system may be more “productive.”

I want to see Friday’s model runs before I totally buy into the notion of heavier snow Saturday night & Sunday, but the latest trends suggest we may see a “plowable” snow event this weekend.

Snow lovers may finally have something to cheer about by Sunday evening.

Stay tuned as the Friday model runs trickle in!


  • Erica

    Snow! FINALLY! This is exciting news. Any moisture would be wonderful at this point in time. Thank you for the continued updates & the models. It’s wonderful to see the science and formulas behind the forecasting.