Tranquil weather here; storm to batter the Northeast

The thermometer did not have much of a workout in November. High temperatures in the Twin Cities have ranged from 39 to 47 degrees.

44 degrees Tuesday’s maximum in the Twin Cities

0.31 inches of rain at the International Airport Tuesday

0.8 inches of snow in Eau Claire sets a daily snowfall record for Nov 6

Don’t expect much from Mother Nature today. More of the same, but with the hope of increasing sunshine in eastern Minnesota as the day progresses. Western Minnesota was already experiencing clear skies. Dry weather is on tap through Thursday night.

Thursday should be one of the better days we’ve had of late for outdoor chores.

We continue to monitor the storm about to hammer New York the next 24 hours. The onslaught of wind and rain is imminent. Radar image 742 a.m. EST:

radarnyc.gif

Source:NOAA/Weather underground

GOES water vapor enhance image from 7 a.m. EST:

goeseast.jpg

The Storm Prediction Center posted this analysis of the pressure pattern as of 6 a.m. CST:

atlstorm.gif

Source:NOAA/SPC

The National Weather Service in New York City issued this statement at 430 a.m. EST:

…HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY…* LOCATIONS…NEW YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…COASTAL

CONNECTICUT…HUDSON COUNTY…AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY.

* HAZARDS…DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS…NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS…WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES…AS WELL AS MINOR PROPERTY

The latest forecast from the North American Model shows the storms slow progress and position at 10 p.m. EST tonight:

NYCstorm.gif

On Friday a storm system will begin to get better organized and strengthen in the Central Plains. We’ll look for milder air to surge north from Missouri and Iowa into southern Minnesota overnight Friday and into Saturday.

Saturday’s forecast maximum temperatures from the National Weather Service:

Satsmax.png

By midday on Saturday the storm center will be tracking toward Minnesota. As the center of low pressure moves into the state there may be a set up for a band of thunderstorms to develop mainly over southeast Minnesota. It is typical for a system like this to develop what is known as a “dry slot,” where the strong jet stream splits the moisture.

Precipitation forecast from GFS model for Saturday. Surface pressure pattern is valid at 6 p.m. CST Saturday:

satpcpn.gif

Source: NOAA/NWS/College of Dupage.

NOAA’s Prediction Center picks up and this and paints a minimum amount of rainfall over much of Minnesota on Saturday:

dryslot.gif

Forecast precipitation for Saturday and Sunday. Source: NOAA/NCEP HPC

We could use the moisture. Let’s see how this pans out over the weekend.

Temperatures will nosedive on Saturday night and Sunday. Highs on Monday are expected to hold in the 30s statewide.

Craig Edwards

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