Hot Turkey: Record warmth & 60s possible by Thanksgiving? Sandy’s waves set records

51F high temp at MSP Wednesday

+9F vs. average in the metro and most of Minnesota

Weak cool front slides through Minnesota Thursday – temps back to the 40s

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

50s return this weekend

60+ possible by Thanksgiving & Black Friday in the metro

59F record high at MSP Thanksgiving Day

55F record high at MSP on Black Friday

Twin Cities quick look forecast:

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Mild and milder:

After flopping around a bit this week, the forecast models have now reached consensus on what may be another shot of record warmth for Minnesota on Thanksgiving 2012.

The latest European model and GFS runs advertise a major bubble of warmth surging north into Minnesota ahead of developing low pressure over the Rockies by Thanksgiving Day.

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European (ECMWF) Model shows warm air surging north next week.

Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

If the latest runs pan out, southerly winds, sunshine and bare ground could combine to produce temps of at least 60 degrees in southern Minnesota including the metro by Thanksgiving Day and/or Black Friday. I would not be shocked to see temps well into the 60s…and even a stray 70+ degree temp in southern Minnesota by next Thursday or Friday.

59F is the official record at MSP next Thursday….and 55 on Friday. At this point both records appear to be in jeopardy of falling.

Let’s see, 80 degrees on St. Patty’s Day…and 60s on Thanksgiving. And we live where exactly? What a year.

The bigger question…Is this the new normal?

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Coastal flooding in Mantoloking, N.J., from an Air National Guard helicopter.

Image Credit: New Jersey National Guard/Scott Anema.

Hurricane Sandy follow up # 352: Record 32 foot waves

The aftermath and post-mortem on Hurricane Sandy continues to astound.

Buoys of the New Jersey and New York show record wave heights as Sandy approached shore. Waves exceeded 32.5 feet at a buoy about 15 miles off the entrance to New York Harbor.

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NASA visualization of the wind field associated with Hurricane Sandy as it approached the Mid-Atlantic coast on Oct. 28, 2012. This map was produced with data from a radar scatterometer on the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) Oceansat-2. Wind speeds above 40 mph are yellow; above 50 mph are orange; and above 60 mph are dark red.

Image Credit: NASA

Climate Central’s Andrew Freedman expands:

One of the buoys is located near the entrance to New York Harbor, about 15 nautical miles southeast of Breezy Point, N.Y., which sustained heavy damage from a merciless combination of coastal flooding and a fire that spread out of control. The harbor entrance buoy recorded a significant wave height of 32.5 feet at 8:50 pm on Oct. 29, beating the previous record set during Hurricane Irene by 6.5 feet! Records at that buoy extend only to 2008, which minimizes the historical significance of the record somewhat.

Significant wave height measures the average of the top third of the highest waves, which means that individual waves were actually higher than the 32.5-foot measurement.

The other buoy that set a significant wave height record is located 30 nautical miles south of Islip, Long Island, and during the evening of Oct. 29, the wave heights at that location built to a maximum height of 31 feet. That was the highest seen at that location since that buoy began operation in 1975, and exceeded the previous record of 30 feet, which was set during a fierce nor’easter on Dec. 11, 1992.

“BASED ON THE THE INFORMATION PROVIDED . . . IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH NATIONAL DATA BUOY LOCATIONS NEAREST SANDY HOOK . . . ACHIEVED A RECENT RECORD EXTREME SEA STATE ON TOP OF AND PROBABLY VERY CLOSE TO THE TIME OF THE RECORD STORM TIDE AT SANDY HOOK. ONE CAN INFER FROM THE DATA THAT THESE WAVE HEIGHTS WERE THE LARGEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN THIS PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 1975,” the Weather Service said.

These unprecedented wave heights hammered the New York & New Jersey Coasts on top of the 11+ foot storm surge in some areas. The incredible power of these waves plowing into homes is one reason there was so much devastation in Sandy’s path.

What’s in a name? Potentially billions of $ for homeowners in Sandy’s path

Deep Throat once told a young hungry reporter named Bob Woodward…”Follow the money.”

One thing many do not realize is that big money is on the line with “named storm deductibles” when it comes to the insurance industry and homeowners in the path of damaging storms.

Sandy lost her “named” hurricane status when she rammed ashore in New Jersey last month. That was good news for millions of residents because policy holders pay a lower deductable for “generic” storm damage vs. “named storm” damage.

Same storm….different name.

Some are concerned that NOAA may retroactively “rename” Sandy as a hurricane up to landfall; which could cost policy holders millions. One Senator is sounding alarm bells.

Again, the story from Andrew Freedman at Climate Central.

As Climate Central reported on Nov. 2, the storm status change has major implications for property owners who are filing insurance claims for storm damage, since most hurricane insurance policies have deductibles that would have been triggered if the storm still had been a named hurricane at the time of landfall, and if hurricane warnings were in effect.

New York Senator Chuck Schumer (D) is now seeking to ensure that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does not retroactively label the storm a hurricane during the course of a storm review, since doing so would raise deductibles for millions of home and business owners. According to The Hill, Schumer sent a letter to NOAA requesting that the storm be labeled a tropical storm or some other classification, rather than a hurricane. The letter also went to insurance companies.

“Today, we’ve sent a letter to NOAA, the weather agency, as well as to the insurance companies that we’re looking over their shoulder. We want NOAA to keep this classified as a tropical storm and to save homeowners in New York and Long Island thousands of dollars, and we don’t want the insurance companies to play any games,” Schumer said in a radio interview.

The deductibles typically range from 1-to-5 percent of the covered value of a home. So, if a home is insured for $300,000, and there is a deductible of 5 percent, the homeowner would have to pay $15,000 before getting back any money from their insurance company.

I’ve said many times that Hurricane Sandy did not end once the storm clouds cleared. Some may be feeling the effects from Sandy for years to come.

PH

  • Craig Edwards

    Great news coverage on Sandy and revealing the letter to NOAA. What’s next? calling an earthquake landscape readjustment?

    My second thought; if sea levels are rising, coastal land is sinking and more storms of this intensity are expected to occur, why would people rebuild in the devastated area?