60s ahead: Record warm Thanksgiving? Much colder Black Friday & next week

57F at MSP Airport Sunday

+17F vs. average!

Near 60 in southern Minnesota today

Mid-60s Wednesday

Warm Turkey? 62F on a record challenging Thanksgiving Day

Other shoe Cold front arrives late on Thanksgiving Day – much colder 30s by Black Friday

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Mild into Turkey Day:

Our unseasonably mild weather pattern will hold for 3 more days, or at least until Thanksgiving morning in most of Minnesota.

Southerly winds and mixed sun will help drive temps in the mid 60s by Wednesday.

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A strong cold front slides through about the time the Turkey is coming out of the oven in the metro Thursday. You’ll notice the cooler breezes by late Thanksgiving Day, and Black Friday looks bracing with temps back into the 30s and a biting northwest wind for eager shoppers.

November 2012: Warm so far…..

So far in November temps are running a full +3.0F vs. average in the Twin Cities.

We’ll add to that total through Thanksgiving Day, before the bottom drops out Friday. That leaves a full week of what appears to be near to colder than average temps to close the month.

We’ll likely end November slightly warmer than average.

The early look for the first few days of December is cold at this point. Temps may not climb out of the teens and 20s by late next week, and the forecast models are hinting at the chance of at least a little snow.

CPC favors a colder than average December in the Upper Midwest.

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Stay tuned.

NOAA “false start” on Hurricane Sandy review:

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Hurricane Sandy from NASA MODIS Terra image

This story caught my eye, and will catch the attention of those in Hurricane Sandy’s path.

NOAA formed, then quickly disbanded a team that was set to study NOAA’s performance on Hurricane Sandy.

Among the many issues with Sandy was the fact that NOAA dropped the name prior to landfall, as Sandy became “post-tropical” storm Sandy.

NHC did a great job tracking Sandy, and gave unprecedented lead time of a week to the New Jersey & New York coastlines before Sandy’s arrival.

I have mixed feelings about dropping Sandy’s “name” before landfall.

On one hand, Sandy retained many characteristics of a hurricane as she raced ashore. Also, the lack of any hurricane warnings may have reduced awareness and preparations…sent the wrong signal prior to landfall.

On the other hand, NOAA appears to have done homeowners a big favor by dropping the name. Most coastal insurance policies have “hurricane deductibles” which are far more costly than a claim from “normal” storm damage.

Climate Central’s Andrew Freedman has more. Here are a few excerpts.

Just days after commissioning a review of its performance during Hurricane Sandy, the National Weather Service (NWS) abruptly disbanded the review team Thursday, saying that “a larger, multi-agency review of this event may take place” instead. The agency gave no time frame on when another review team might be put in place, or what other agencies might be involved in such a review.

and…

Smith said the team’s work had already begun, a budget had been approved, and he and other team members had already been working late into the night on the analysis. He said the assessment team intended to examine all angles of the event, including the question of why there were no hurricane warnings issued for New Jersey or New York. The storm decimated the New Jersey coastline and left 43 people dead in New York City alone, many from drowning due to the record storm surge flooding.

“We very quickly focused on the fact that you had a hurricane approaching the U.S. East Coast and no hurricane warnings,” Smith said in an interview.

and…

Service assessments are routine investigations that the NWS — which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — conducts after major storm events, from paralyzing blizzards to deadly hurricanes. Hurricane Sandy was an unusual event, though, because it presented unique forecasting and communications challenges. For example, the storm was transitioning from a tropical weather system to one that more closely resembled a nor’easter of the sort that frequent the Northeast during the fall and winter. The NWS declared the storm “post-tropical” shortly before landfall on Oct. 30, and it never issued hurricane warnings for the New Jersey coast or for New York City, among other areas, choosing instead to allow local NWS forecast offices to issue a multitude of other warnings, such as high-wind warnings.

That decision sparked intense opposition among some forecasters who said that hurricane warnings would have galvanized the public, along with political leaders, to undertake more significant preparations ahead of the storm.

However, it also provided a major benefit for property owners, since hurricane insurance deductibles typically are not triggered unless a hurricane warning is in effect or a named hurricane makes landfall. As Climate Central reported on Nov. 13, New York Senator Chuck Schumer has asked NOAA not to change the classification of Sandy to a hurricane due to its implications for millions of insurance policies

The repercussions from Sandy will last for years.

PH

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