Misty near miss; Milder Sunday & Monday; Drought deepens

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.04″” Actual precip at MSP Saturday

.03″ NAM model output for metro rainfall Saturday

Near Miss: 2″ to 4″ rainfall for parts of central Wisconsin this weekend!

Severe outbreak for Oklahoma, Kansas & Missouri

100% of Minnesota now slipping deeper into drought

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

Disappointing “Near miss”

Ugh.

We all know numerical forecast modes can be off on storm tracks, but this one is just cruel.

What looked like (and still is) a promising weather system decided to take the eastern route through the Midwest this weekend. The result? What seemed like Minnesota’s best chance for widespread meaningful rainfall will visit Iowa and Wisconsin instead.

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Good for them, bummer for us.

The system is the most impressive in months in the Midwest. It will bring badly needeed rainfall to drought plagued states from Kansas through Iowa and Wisconsin. In some cases 2″ to 4″ of rain may soak parched soils and give lakes & rivers some fresh flow.

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Source: NOAA/HPC

Just not in Minnesota.

The southeastern part of Minnesota may see up to .50″ of rainfall…with the southeast tip maybe squeaking out an inch.

No way to sugar coat it, the late eastward jog in a promising weather system this weekend is not good news for Minnesota.

Drought Gets Worse:

The model projections of .50″ to 1″+ rainfall earlier this week for parts of Minnesota were never going to bust a drought, but it would have come at a critical time…and give trees and the rest of our Minnesota landscape a much needed drink.

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I’m growing increasingly concerned now that we won’t be able to catch up from the 5″ to 12″ rainfall deficits we’ve accumulated before the ground freezes up in another 6 weeks or so.

100% of Minnesota (actually 99.95%) is now basically in some category of drought. Nearly half the state (47.38%) is now in “severe” or “extreme” drought.

Unless the pattern changes significantly in the next 6 weeks, we’re going to go into the spring of 2013 with serious soil moisture drought issues.

Stay tuned.

PH

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