Dry Metro evening; Vivid sunest? T-Storm Watch until 11pm east

Vivid sunest?

Smoke from western fires may create a colorful sunset tonight.

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Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

Severe Update From The Weather Lab….

NOAA’s SPC pulled the trigger on a severe T-Storm Watch until 11pm for parts of eastern Minnesota. The watch does not include the metro and any storm threat has passed to the east this evening.

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URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 614

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

330 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST IOWA

FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN

SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA

WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ELY MINNESOTA TO 35 MILES WEST OF DUBUQUE IOWA.

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION…TCU/TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN AN ARC FROM NERN MN SWD THROUGH FAR WRN WI INTO SE MN/NE IA…ALONG AN AXIS OF WEAK LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN MODERATE WLY MID/UPR-LVL FLOW. DEEP EML SAMPLED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM FROM REGION…RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FO LARGE HAIL GIVEN 35-45 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR/LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS CONTAINING E OR SE-MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND…AND POSSIBLY BACK-BUILDING SEGMENTS…WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR HAIL/DMGG WIND.

Drier air (dew points in the 50s) is working into the metro, and that should limit storms to the far eastern (Wisconsin) areas of the metro.

I’ve laid dewpoints and streamlines (low level air flow) over the late PM GOES 1km visible satellitel image. Notice how drier air has pushed east as far as the metro.

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Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Upper level energy in northeast Minnesota from Ely to the North Shore and deeper moisture in southeast Minnesota near Rochester & La Crosse may spawn big storms in those areas through this evening.

-Latest Duluth radar loop

-Latest La Crosse radar loop

Stay tuned for warnings and keep an eye on the western sky tonight!

PH.

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