Instant summer; Day 31 of 90+ Tuesday; AC to heat this week? NYC “Metronadoes”

Red Flag Warnings: High fire danger today in Minnesota

Gusts to 40 mph at times today

Instant summer: 80s today

July rewind: Day #31 of 90+ heat in Minnesota this summer Tuesday

AC to heat in 60 hours? 90 Tuesday PM…40s by Friday morning?

Drought deepens: GFS says only .69″ next 16 days?

“Metronadoes” Urban tornadoes increasing?

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

Windy & Bone Dry: “Fire Weather” high today

I’m having Arizona flashbacks these days.

One of the reasons I moved back to Minnesota in 2005 was for more “greener” and wetter pastures. No more “dust devils” and “Red Flag Warnings.”

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Did I wake up and I’m back in Arizona forecasting weather again?

A gusty south wind will boost temps back into the 80s today in much of Minnesota.

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Source: NOAA

The combination of very dry dew points in the 40s (with PM humidity below 20%), warm temps and windy conditions means any fires that start today will spread rapidly and exhibit “explosive growth potential.”

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Source: NOAA/SPC

Last 90 degree high Tuesday?

We average 1 day of 90+ heat in September in the metro. You had to figure we’d get 2 after this summer.

Hyperactive bank thermometers should flash 90+ one last time by around 3pm Tuesday afternoon in the metro and Mankato, Worthington and Redwood Falls.

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Source: NOAA

It will be the 31st day of 90 degree heat in the metro this year…the most since the record 44 days in 1988- 24 years ago.

At least dew points will hold in the 50s, so it will be a “dry heat.” Wait….I’m in Minnesota right?

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AC to heat in 60 hours?

The beauty of Minnesota in September? You get to use both your AC unit and your furnace in the same week.

AC units will hum away Tuesday, but you may reluctantly give in to the temptation to fire up the furnace for the first time by Friday morning when metro temps dive into the 40s.

Even colder next week?

The September reality check kicks into high gear next week.

The medium range models are adamant about an October like cold front next Monday. If the GFS is right, a gusty NW wind will keep highs in the 40s north and 50s south early next week.

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Source: NOAA/CPC

Widespread frost may hit the northern half on Minnesota by next Tuesday morning…and reach as far south as the northeast metro?

Stay tuned…and get ready to embrace the furnace you’ve blissfully ignored for the past 4 months.

Drought deepens: Dry again next 2 weeks?

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor is a bit alarming for Minnesota.

62.8% of MN now “abnormally dry” or in drought

39.29% of MN now in “drought”

29% of MN now in “severe” or “extreme” drought

The hardest hit areas? Northwest MN and along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota running up to St. James & Mankato.

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Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?MN,MW

The Weather Lab in the west metro is now showing definite signs of drought.

The GFS is printing out only .69″ rainfall the next 16 days. Let’s hope it’s way off on the low side, but right now I agree that rainfall looks sparse the next 1-2 weeks.

“Metronadoes” trend continues with NYC Twisters Saturday:

Two twisters roared ashore in New York City Saturday.

Here are some details and video from NBC News, complete with New York accent.

The latest urban tornadoes continue the trend the last decade or so of downtown twisters. Here area partial lists of some of the more notable “Metronadoes” in recent years.(Source: Weather Channel & AP)

- Dallas/Fort Worth: A series of tornadoes struck the suburbs of the Dallas-Fort Worth area on April 3, 2012. One of those tornadoes was broadcast live on The Weather Channel as it tossed parked semi-trailers into the air.

Twelve years earlier, an EF2 tornado struck downtown Fort Worth on March 28, 2000; that tornado was also broadcast live on local television. Two people died and windows were blown out of skyscrapers.

– Raleigh, N.C.: A long-track tornado struck North Carolina’s capital city on April 16, 2011, killing four when a large tree fell onto a mobile home.

The twister, which had a path length of 38 miles, caused EF1 damage in much of Raleigh before strengthening to an EF3 later in its lifespan. A total of 2,270 homes and 34 businesses were damaged, with damage estimates set at $115 million.

– Minneapolis: Minnesota’s largest city was hit by an EF0 tornado on August 19, 2009 that tracked from the south side of the city to near the Convention Center downtown. There were no injuries.

An EF1 tornado moved into the city’s north side from Golden Valley, Minn., on May 22, 2011, killing one person and causing $166 million in damage in the metro area. The twister was quickly overshadowed by the devastating EF5 tornado that struck Joplin, Mo., a few hours later that same day.

– Oklahoma City: While the central business district of Oklahoma City has not taken a direct strike from a tornado in recent years, other parts of the sprawling city and its close-in suburbs were hit each year from 2007 through 2011.

The most notorious tornadoes to strike OKC in recent years were the monster F5 on May 3, 1999; an F4 on May 8, 2003; and an EF4 tornado on May 10, 2010.

Interestingly, these three tornadoes all targeted the south and southeast sides of the city itself, though other tornadoes associated with these and other outbreaks affected other parts of the Oklahoma City area.

– Atlanta: An isolated thunderstorm put down a tornado shortly before reaching downtown Atlanta on March 14, 2008. The tornado passed dangerously close to a Southeastern Conference tournament basketball game in progress at the Georgia Dome and broadcast live on national television.

– Salt Lake City: Utah’s most destructive tornado struck the downtown area on August 11, 1999 as local television stations broadcast the destruction live. A Las Vegas man was killed in a temporary tent set up for the National Outdoor Retailers Association convention when it was hit by the twister. The Delta Center (now EnergySolutions Arena) suffered roof damage. About 100 people were injured.

The F2 tornado caused over $170 million in damage.

– Nashville: A tornado struck downtown Nashville and adjacent districts of the city on April 16, 1998. A student was struck by a falling tree at Centennial Park and died of his injuries a few weeks later.

A number of downtown office buildings lost windows to the storm, which, like many of the other recent urban tornadoes, was broadcast live on local television.

– Miami: An EF1 tornado, dramatic in appearance but relatively ordinary in terms of damage, passed near Miami’s high-rise condominiums on May 12, 1997. As with most of the others on this list, this tornado was broadcast live on local television.

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For several years I’ve been telling people that the notion that tornadoes don’t hit urban areas is a myth.

Saturday’s NYC twisters are the latest proof.

PH

  • Disco

    The GFS has been inaccurate as of late. In July it predicted way above average temps for August. It was wrong. I’m hoping the outlook for next week is wrong too.