70s return; Drought of 2012 has winners; Hottest year in USA likely

64F high temp at MSP Wednesday at 2:59pm

70s return by Friday

0″ GFS rainfall forecast through next Thursday

Winners in drought of 2012 – see below

“Outlier” models nailed the drought forecast in 2012 where others failed

93% chance 2012 will end as the hottest year on record in USA

MSP quick look forecast:

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

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Arizona, with lakes:

If you’ve ever wondered what January in Arizona is like, now you know.

Sunny cool days, clear chilly nights. Desert dry dew points in the 20s & 30s. Little chance for rain. That’s the Sonoran Desert in January.

Our desert air mass lingers into next week, and temps will warm into the 70s by Friday and into the weekend.

Chances for a much needed soaking? Slim and none, and slim took the train to Missouri last week.

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Source: NOAA GFS Model

The next best hope for any rain appears to be next Friday October 5th.

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Source: University of Wisconsin

Drought 2012 has… winners?

Remember that old saying…”there really is no bad weather, just different kinds of good weather?”

It appears to apply in the drought of 2012.

We’ve talked a lot this year about the “losers” and negative effects of drought…and there are many.

Here’s a list of some who are drought “winners” this year, and have come out ahead this year. In some cases, way ahead.

-Homeowners and insurance companies: 2012 is the quietest tornado season in 24 years in the USA. After the devastating losses in the 2011 “Metronadoes” in Joplin and Tuscaloosa, insurers have suffered lower losses from tornadoes in 2012.

SPC reports 724 tornadoes so far in 2012. That’s the fewest since 702 in 1988, another drought year. It’s also way below the 1,691 tornadoes last year and the 3 year average of 1,382. 2012 looks like it will go down in the lowest 10% of all tornado years barring major fall outbreaks.

-Farmers who have a good corn crop: It’s the “perfect storm” in a good way for many Minnesota farmers this year. Many had a good crop, and the drought that grips the central & southern corn belt sent corn prices soaring to record highs. If you have a crop, you’re getting record prices this year.

-Ag companies who develop drought resistant seeds: This is a growing area of demand as drought increases.

-Builders, painters & landscapers have all benefitted from less rain and more work days. Jobs move along faster meaning more money in a shorter period of time. Landscapers report increased business from checking & replacing drought stressed plants.

-Heating & AC companies: The long summer heat wave produced high demand for AC sales, install and repair crews.

-Ice cream vendors & Laundromats? Yes it was a busy year at your local DQ, and for your local ice cream truck. And apparently many small town laundromats saw a boom in business as rural residents came “into town” to do laundry and take stress of of household well systems.

Who knew?

ClimateCast: 93% chance 2012 will go down as hottest year ever in USA

Remember 1998?

That’s the hottest year on record in the USA. At least for another 3 months.

USA temps in 2012 are running a full 3F above the record pace of 1998 so far. It will take a remarkably cold shift the last 3 months to keep 2012 from going down as the hottest year on record.

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Source: NOAA/NCDC & Climate Central – Andrew Freedman

The details from Climate Central, who cites The Weather Channel analysis putting the odds at 93% it will happen.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, 1998 was the warmest year on record in the U.S., with an average temperature of 55.08°F. So far, 2012 has been on track to smash that record by about 3°F. This Climate Central graphic illustrates that in order to avoid setting the record for the warmest year, the period of September through December would need to be exceptionally cold, ranking in the coolest third of average temperatures for the period.

Additionally, according to The Weather Channel, taking only the years since World War II, the odds of not surpassing the warmest year are just 7 percent. So while it’s certainly possible that 2012 won’t be a record-breaker, it would take a heck of a cold snap to pull that off.

PH

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