Tropical Storm “Isaac” growing threat to Cuba, Florida? Models tightly grouped

Tropical Storm Isaac named Tuesday by National Hurricane Center

9th named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Haiti & Cuba likely hurricane targets by Friday & Saturday

Growing risk for Florida with each passing model run

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“Isaac” is Born:

You’ll hear a lot about Isaac in the next week.

Already making national news headlines, Isaac was officially named the 9th tropical storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tuesday.

Spinning over warm open water under a favorably light “shear” environment, Isaac should flare and become a hurricane sometime late Wednesday or Thursday.

Heading West:

Current movement and all model tracks steer Isaac west over the next 48 hours.

The official NHC track brings (Category 2) Hurricane Isaac to near Cuba by Sunday.

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Source: NOAA/NHC

One interesting development is that the “spaghetti models” are pretty tightly clustered with Isaac. That means the models are in fairly good agreement about the possible track. Still there is considerable variation as you would expect 5-7 days out.

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http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

You don’t need to be a forecasting genius to see that many of the solution put Florida in the potential path of Isaac next week.

Take a look at NOAA’s GFS run from Tuesday PM. The GFS has been consistent in bringing a potential Hurricane Isaac right over the Florida peninsula next Monday & Tuesday.

The latest soultion? The center of Hurricane Isaac right over Tampa next Monday night.

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Source: NOAA/NCEP

Model fantasy? Maybe. The average model track error this far out is still about 400 to 500 miles.

But there is a disturbing consistency about the GFS and the model tracks overall. If I was a betting man and lived in Florida, I’d be taking precautions already and planning for possible hurricane conditions by late Sunday or Monday. With each passing model run, the likelihood of Isaac veering safely away drops.

Stay tuned…this situation needs to be watched very closely.

PH

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