Tropical Depression Nine forms in Atlantic; Wet start to MN State Fair?

TD 9 formed early today in the Atlantic

35 mph maximum sustained winds

Moving West at 20 mph

Tropical Storm Isaac likely by early Wednesday

Tight cluster of forecast model tracks to near Cuba by Sunday

Florida bound? Growing model trends suggest Isaac may threaten Florida early next week

RNC kicks off in Tampa next Monday

Wet & thundery opening weekend of Minnesota State Fair?

86 Isaac IR.gif

Source: NOAA

TD Nine today; “Isaac” tomorrow?

Here we go!

It’s “game on” for hurricane forecasters in the Atlantic and the southeast USA.

TD Nine has formed, and all indications are she will become Hurricane Isaac in the next 48 hours.

The official NHC forecast and suite of model tracks favors putting Isaac near Cuba by sometime Sunday. That’s a position which usually poses a threat to the USA mainland as hurricanes recurve to the north.

86 Isaac NHC.PNG

Offical track for “Isaac”

Source: NOAA/NHC

The GFS model takes a potential “Isaac” right up the center of Florida next Monday night & Tuesday morning.

86 GFS.PNG

Source: NOAA/NCEP

Keep in mind that model forecast track errors are still around 400 to 500 miles 6-7 days out. It;s still too early to say Isaac will hit Florida…it could veer out into the Atlantic east of Florida, or continue west into the Gulf. If Isaac slows over the eastern mountains of Cuba the circulation could also get ripped apart by higher terrain.

86 t i.PNG

Source: WSI

But if Isaac tracks south of Cuba, then curves north over low lying western Cuba it could be a real threat to Florida.

86 sfwd.gif

Source: NOAA/ https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

Stay tuned.

State Fair Forecast: Partly wet & thundery?

I’ve been hoping I’m wrong about this now for almost a week, but with less than 48 hours to go it still looks potentially wet for the opening weekend of the 2012 MN State Fair.

86 nam.PNG

NAM model paints a wet picture Thursday

Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

Here’s my “Fair Forecast for the opening 4 days.

Thursday: Mixed clouds with a scattered showers & T-Storms. High near 80. (70s if clouds linger?)

Friday: Better Fair day? Probably dry with more sun. High 84.

Saturday: Scattered rain & thunder. High near 80.

Sunday: Mixed sun & cooler breezes. High 79.

The GFS is cranking out over a potential for 2″+ rainfall by late Saturday.

86 qpf.PNG

Source: ISU

Craig Edwards and I will join Kerri Miller on The Daily Circuit Thursday morning at 10am live at the Fair to talk about the crazy weather year of 2012 in Minnesota.

Please join us at the MPR booth at the NE corner of Judson & Nelson!

PH

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