Scattered rain & thunder today; “Aug-tember” 60s ahead? East Coast hurricane chances?

Wet Wednesday – Cooler today with scattered showers & some thunder

No Risk Probably not severe today; No SPC risk areas for Minnesota

“Aug-tember” 70s into this weekend…60s by next weekend?

Hurricane Watch: Ernesto in Mexico

GFS: Hurricane potential near East Coast week of August 20th?

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

Pattern Change Arrives: Much cooler with hit & miss showers:

A well advertised (and mostly welcome) pattern change to cooler weather has finally arrived in Minnesota.

Low pressure slides through today and early Thursday. The low is not terribly strong, but is enough to trigger scattered showers & a few (probably non severe) T-Storms today. SPC is not sufficiently impressed to paste any risk areas over Minnesota today.

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Source: NOAA/SPC

Overall rainfall totals look to be under .25″….but some areas may pick up more especially north of the metro.

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Source: NOAA/wxcaster.com

The best chance of a .50″+ soaker? From Detroit Lakes to Brainerd to Duluth today.

“Aug-tember” on the way:

After a record 80 on St. Patty’s Day and one of the hotter summers on record so far, it’s hard to fathom a fall like weather pattern in August. The weather maps have a funny way of balancing out over time.

It looks like this August may feel more like September at times. Could we see the first cooler than average month in 14 months? May 2011 was the last time we logged a cooler than average month in Minnesota.

Looking at the models into next week, I see highs in the 70s the next few days for the metro and virtually all of Minnesota. The cooler Canadian high pressure system will nose in with northeast breezes through Sunday. Lows may dip into the upper 30s in northeast Minnesota, and there is a real possibility of scattered frost by this weekend in some of the cooler nooks & crannies like Embarrass & Biwabik.

We should warm up again for a few days next week…and upper 80s are again possible with an increased thunder threat in the middle of next week.

Then a stronger cold front should drop south by the weekend of August 18th. If the GFS verifies, highs may stay in the 60s by the weekend of the 18th. That’s about average for late September, and will be a real “departure” from what we’re used to this summer.

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GFS Model: 60s next weekend?

Source: NOAA/http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmsp

People have been asking me all summer “Paul, when is it going to cool off?” The cooler weather is here, but I’m not sure everyone is ready for 60s in August. As we say in the weather biz….”The models giveth, and the models taketh away.”

We’ll probably squeak out another 90 or 2 this year, but to my slightly trained eye it looks like we’re probably done with any sustained stretches of 90+ degree heat.

Stay tuned on that one.

Hurricane season picking up steam?

Tropical Storm Ernesto is battering the Mexican Coast this week. Ernesto has weakened to Tropical Storm status over the Yucatan, but may regain hurricane strength while crossing the Bay of Campeche before slamming into Mexico once again late Thursday.

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Source: NOAA/NHC

Meanwhile more frequent disturbances are crossing the open Atlantic. NHC is keeping an eye on these for possible development.

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Source: NOAA/NHC

The GFS and other models are picking up on the possibility of a potential hurricane approach somewhere near the eastern USA the week of August 20th in about 10-12 days.

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GFS: Notion of a hurricane apppraching the east coast on August 22nd?

Source: NOAA/NCEP

It’s way too early to say for sure if the treat is real or just “model-speak”, but we are moving into the peak of hurricane season in the next month.

Again…stay tuned.

PH

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