Isaac trends west; Tampa breathing easier? New Orleans in play?

Westward trend in Isaac’s track in latest forecast models

Tampa breathing easier? With each passing model run

Pensacola, Mobile Bay & New Orleans landfall chances increasing

European model leading the way on westward trend

Scattered showers in Metro & Minnesota into early Friday

Near 90 for the metro and southern Minnesota by Friday afternoon?

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

Tracking Isaac:

The latest model trends support a westward shift in the official NHC track forecast from Isaac.

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Source: NOAA/NHC

It now appears more likely that Isaac will clip Haiti Friday, cross Cuba sometime this weekend, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and gain hurricane strength on Monday.

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http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

NOAA’a National Hurricane Center explains the shift…and lingering track uncertainties in their forecast discussion.

THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT…SHOWING A WEST-NW MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5.

DESPITE THE GENERAL WESTWARD SHIFT…THE HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL CALL FOR ISAAC TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUS… SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. THE 96-120 HR POINTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

Here’s a great way to visualize the westward trend in the “official” NHC tracks over the past few days.

The European model remains the westernmost solution, and now takes a strong Isaac to the Louisiana Coast next Thursday.

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Source: WxUnderground

The European is among the most reliable models in the past few years for hurricane tracks. The USA’s GFS model is a close 2nd.

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Source: National Hurricane Center 2011 verification report.

Overall trends favor putting Isaac into the Gulf Monday where Isaac may have some breathing room to grow. The chances of a USA landfall with Isaac look high….probably 80% at this point.

Friday’s model runs should be critical in refining Isaac’s eventual track and landfall.

PH

  • wayne cheatum

    Paul Huttner provides the most intelligent and precise analysis of the Tropical Storm situation in the Gulf that I have ever read. As a Florida resident I’ve been viewing these analyses from the Weather Channel and the local news and they are always so one-dimensional. Paul’s analysis is complex in its information but simple in its delivery. I’ve added you guys to my Favorites.

    Thanks

    Wayne Cheatum

  • Chris Marshall

    I don’t disagree with Wayne’s comments regarding Mr. Huttner’s forecast abilities. I am a little frustrated that Isaac has the attention of Mr. Huttner lately and he seems to have written off any detailed forecasts for the upper Midwest.

  • robertsgt40

    Wonder how much BP lol will be pushed ashore? Corexit dispersant, in addition to being toxic, just pushed the oil to the sea floor. Someone have the cajones to weigh in on that?