Closing the book on a very warm July

According to the National Weather Service in Duluth the average temperature of 71.9 for the month of July tied for the warmest July on record. Many locations in the state will likely come in with statistics that confirm this was the first, second or third warmest July on record.

Here’s a nice summary prepared by the LaCrosse, WI NWS office on the historical heat of July 2012. LaCrosse average temperature for the month of 79.6 degrees did set a July record dating back to 1872.

july2012.png

Source: Regional Climate Center/LaCrosse NWS

High temperatures today will once again top 90 degrees in southern Minnesota. The dew points are expected to creep into the uncomfortable range as well. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be the highest in the southern third of Minneota.

chanpicture.png

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center expects a small threat of storms producing large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and tonight.

day1otlk_1200.gif

Some scattered thunderstorms were already traveling through west central Minnesota this morning.

radaraug1.gif Radar screen capture at 7 a.m. CDT showing thunderstorms through west central Minnesota. Source: Weatherunderground/NWS

Thursday is expected to be warm with highs in the 80s and mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. The big show pulls into town on Friday and Friday night with a collison of air masses that has the potential to produce strong storms. We’ll have more on that severe weather risk on Thursday.

day3prob_0730.gif

Storm Prediction Center threat for severe weather on Friday and Friday night.

Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic was quiet tin July. Debby blasted the Florida panhandle in late June with 20 inches of rain. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Ernesto. More on the history of Tropical Storm Debby at this web link.

Craig Edwards

  • RalfW

    Its worth noting that the LaCrosse departure from mean graphic also used the most recent 1981-2010 mean data. The decennial revision of the mean builds in a creep warmer so that our divergence from long-term historical ‘normals’ may well be even higher.

    And, as I mentioned a week or two ago, I’m very interested in divergence from mean of nighttime lows. Lack of overnight relief seems important to be noting, as I think the numbers would support that nighttimes are trending even warmer than highs or daily averages.

    Thx!

  • Craig

    Nearly a decade ago researchers suggested that climate change would be recognized in the warmer minimum temperatures in the middle latitudes. Clearly the minimum temperatures of the recent years validate that prediction.

    Higher dew points also inhibit the air mass to cool during the overnight hours in the summer season.

    Thanks for your observation and comment

    Craig