Severe risk & “Bow Echoes” by tonight? Hail & damaging winds possible

.95" rainfall total at Huttner Weather Lab in west metro this morning

.69" in Eden Prairie at Flying Cloud Airport

Warm frontal band of T-Storms rides through metro early this morning

Wet AM commute slow going in heavy rain this morning in the metro

Mixed sun & warmer this afternoon as warm front moves through

Severe risk kicks in later PM & tonight for much of Minnesota

"Bow Echoes" possible with squall lines later PM & evening

Damaging winds & hail possible as storms race southeast late PM & evening

Slow & soggy commute this morning at I-494 & Penn Avenue in south metro

Source: MNDOT

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

" If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes."

Yes, this will be one of those classic "changeable" Minnesota weather days.

Morning rain? Check. Steamy PM sunshine. Yep. "Squall lines" and "Bow echoes" approaching from the west tonight? Probably.

At least there's a little bit of something for everyone in today's forecast.

The morning batch of garden variety T-Storms fired along a warm front...the leading edge of a warmer & slightly more humid air mass nosing into southern Minnesota today.

The crack of thunder & whoosh of gully washing downpours were welcome sounds to many. We needed, and got a good soaking in much of the metro. The weather lab rain gauge in Deephaven is sporting a fresh .95" as of 8 am this morning. My garden, lawn and roses are taking a much needed long deep drink.

PM Forecast: Steamy - then severe?

The early morning Weather Tap visible satellite loop shows the storm clusters over the metro, and some clearing in southwest Minnesota.

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As the warm front pushes east today, we should see some sunshine break out from west to east in southern Minnesota.

That should boost temps well into the 80s in the warm sector, and some southern Minnesota locations could push 90 by 5pm this afternoon.

As the strongest cold front of the summer cuts southeast tonight, expect a line of T-Storms to fire from northern Minnesota southwestward into southwest Minnesota by late afternoon. This could develop into a severe squall line, with possible embedded "bow echoes" that may produce damaging winds & hail.

SPC still has a slight risk for severe weather today in most of Minnesota.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Here's the "severe speak" from SPC:

PRIMARY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...FIRST OVER PARTS OF NWRN MN INTO EXTREME SERN ND/WEST CENTRAL MN...THEN SWWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS.

THE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS THAT SEVERAL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WITH STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Severe "Hailers?"

The storms this afternoon & evening may produce updrafts capable of large damaging hailstones in excess of 2" in diameter, espceically in west central Minnesota.

Source: NOAA/SPC

The most likely timing for possible severe metro storms appears to be between 8pm and midnight.

The 8pm High Resolution Radar (HRR) depicts a cluster of (probably severe) T-Storms firing just west of the metro by 7-9pm tonight.

Source: NOAA

I expect watches and warnings later this afternoon and evening in Minnesota.

Stay tuned...things could get a little bumpy tonight in the metro too.

PH