Scattered rain & thunder; “Hot Front” Sunday? Warmest start to July ever

89 degrees – high in at MSP Thursday

90 degree high at Flying Cloud Airport in Eden Prairie

91 degrees – high in St. Paul Thursday

Slight risk from SPC for a stray severe storm Friday

Scattered & “borderline severe” – probably not a widespread severe outbreak Friday

“Hot Front” temps surging into the 90s Sunday through Tuesday?

MSP quick look forecast:

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

Duluth & North Shore quick look forecast:

(Because one size doesn’t fit all for very different weather patterns along the North Shore)

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Source: Duluth NWS

Scattered rain & thunder returns:

It’s nice to hear the patter of raindrops again in parts of Minnesota.

A slow moving and relatively weak low pressure system is sparking a few scattered showers & T-Storms as we move toward the weekend.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

The key word will be “scattered” for rain & T-Storm coverage, meaning anywhere from 20% to 40% coverage at any given time.

Overall rainfall totals look to be on the lighter side…with most areas picking under .25″ …with .50″ in some of the “luckier” spots.

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Source: Iowa State University

SPC has put out a slight risk for a few severe storms Friday…but severe weather parameters are only marginal. That means storms may just be borderline severe, and scattered at that. I don’t see any huge derecheo events covering thousands of square miles with damage at this point, but one or two severe storms can’t be ruled out Friday.

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Source: NOAA/SPC

Sunday “Hot Front?”

The next push of hot air looks significant Sunday through Tuesday of next week.

90s should be common, and there is some indication that temps could surge well into the 90s by Monday & Tuesday.

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Source: ISU

My MPR colleage Dr. Mark Seeley tells us this is the warmest start to July on rcord so far for the 1st 10 days of July in the metro. Ugh!

Topic: Warmest first 10 days of July

For the Twin Cities, and perhaps a few other climate stations, the first ten days of July 2012 has been the warmest in history based on mean temperature values. Seven of the first ten days brought daytime temperatures of 90 F or greater (two days were over 100 F), and on five nights the temperature remained above the 70 degrees F mark. These values produced a mean temperature of 82.7 degrees F, or 9 degrees F warmer than normal. The following is a list of the top ten warmest first ten days of July in the Twin Cities area going back to 1871:

1. 82.7 F in 2012

2. 82.4 F in 1948

3. 82.2 F in 1036

4. 81.2 F in 1989

5. 81.2 F in 1949

6. 80.8 F in 1937

7. 80.0 F in 1974

8. 79.2 F in 2002

9. 79.1 F in 2011

10. 79.0 F in 1988

The warmth, combined with the relative absence of significant rainfall has produced stress on some crops, as well as other landscape vegetation. Portions of southern and southwestern Minnesota have been designated to be in moderate drought, while northwestern Minnesota counties remain in moderate drought as well.

Topic: Drought expands

Though April and May surplus rainfall brought alleviation of drought across much of southern Minnesota, a deficiency in rainfall since June 1st has brought a return of moderate drought to many areas. Places like Lamberton, Pipestone, Windom, Worthington, Preston, Rushford, and Spring Valley have only seen less than half of normal rainfall since June 1st and crops are showing some signs of stress.

This is worrisome, though Minnesota is not as bad off as many parts of IA, IL, IN, OH, and MO where severe or extreme drought occupies a large share of the landscape. In fact nearly 56 percent of the USA land area is in moderate drought or worse, the highest percentage measured in the past 12 years. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack declared 1016 counties in 26 states to be drought disasters this week based on the designation of “severe drought” by the weekly US Drought Monitor for eight weeks or longer. You can examine more geographic aspects of drought at the Drought Monitor web site:

You can read Mark’s full Weather Talk post here Friday, and hear more from Mark with Phil Picardi during the 6am hour on MPR News Friday morning.

Overall the weather pattern still favors above average temps for the next few weeks in the toasty summer of 2012.

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Source: NOAA/CPC

PH

  • Matt

    Some weather sites (MPR, Weather Underground) are predicting a Tuesday 7/17/2012 high of 106-108. Others are predicting 87-89. What is up with the insanely different forecasts and why are no news organizations talking about what would be a pretty dangerous situation if the 108 prediction comes to pass?

  • Jason

    Matt, I have also seen very high predictions on wunderground several days out. Are you using the “BestForecast” or NWS forecast. The extreme highs disappear as we get closer to the date in question. My understanding is that the BestForecast makes increase use of the PWS data so if you are in the city it will crank up the heat predictions.

  • Noah

    I noticed the same thing last night. The forecasted temps for the twins cities area were 104-106, while the surrounding area were much lower. It seems like the forecast adjusted this morning, and now is more closely inline with that of the NWS forecast.

  • Noah

    ACtually they switched the default forecast (at least on my PC), from the bestcast to the NWS forecast.