Warm June start; Lake Superior temps; D-Day weather reanalyzed

MSP Quick look forecast:

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

83 degree high Tuesday at MSP Airport

76 average high for June 5th

13 days at or above 80 degrees so far in 2012

6 days at or above 80 through June 5th in 2011

+2.4 degrees vs. average so far in June at MSP Airport

Approaching 60 degrees Lake Superior water temps near Duluth Tuesday

Duluth quick look forecast:

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Source: Duluth NWS

D-Day weather forecast changed the course of history

NASA live stream of Venus solar transit:

Free live streaming by Ustream

May 14 sunset.jpg

Warm start to “Meteorological Summer:”

We’re off and running in the 13th straight warmer than average month in Minnesota.

Through Tuesday June 5th, temps are running +2.4 degrees vs. average at MSP Airport. We’ve banked 13 days of 80 degree warmth this year…compared to just 6 last year by this date.

Pleasant high pressure is doing a good job of holding any rain chances at bay this week. It looks like the best chance for (widespread) rain & thunder will come Thursday in western & northern Minnesota and Thursday night into Friday morning in the metro.

Heat builds this weekend:

Heat and humidity will ooze north as we move into the 2nd weekend of June. Southerly winds will pump steamy air north into Minnesota Saturday. Temps could approach 90 but the real story will be the highest dew points of the season in the 70s this weekend.

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Source: Iowa State University

It’s going to feel like the jungle out there at times this weekend. Overall this will be hot summery weekend…a great time to hit the beach. Have a plan “B” that includes a little AC for your graduation party this weekend.

Warmest Spring on record visualized:

Here’s a great graphic from the Twin Cities NWS on our warmest spring on record.

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

Lake Superior: Almost swimmable soon?

Take a look at water temps in western Lake Superior Tuesday.

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Source: Michigan State University

Temps are approaching 60 degrees near Duluth and in the Apostle Islands. At this rate temps may approach the upper 60s to near 70 in the next 2-3 weeks. That’s early for “swimmable” water on the big lake. It’s still plenty chilly though along the North Shore and out in the big lake.

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Source: U.S. Navy Historical Center

D-Day Weather forecast revisited:

It’s one of the most “successful” forecasts in history. The call to delay the D-Day invasion a day worked out perfectly. The rest is history.

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Source: ECMWF

Check out this detailed reanalysis of the invasion forecast from the European Medium Range Forecast Center.

Analyzing and forecasting the weather of early June 1944

Weather forecasts critical to the success of the D-Day landings of 6 June 1944 were made on the nights of 3/4 and 4/5 June 1944:

forecasts for conditions on 5 June made on the evening of 3 June and confirmed early in morning of 4 June;

forecasts for conditions on 6 June made on the evening of 4 June and confirmed early in the morning of 5 June.

The first of these two forecasts, presented to General Eisenhower by his meteorological advisor, Group Captain J.M. Stagg, led to the postponement of the invasion planned for 5 June; the second enabled Eisenhower to make the decision to go ahead on the following day.

One of the forecasters involved, Lawrence Hogben, writing in the Royal Meteorological Society’s magazine Weather in June 1994 recalled how three separate teams, from the Met Office, the Royal Navy and the US Air Force, first made separate forecasts and then sought consensus – an early example of what today we refer to as ensemble forecasting. On the evening of 3 June the teams initially split two-to-one in favour of conditions leading to postponement; the following evening it was initially a two-to-one split in favour of conditions that would allow the invasion to proceed. Demanding military requirements, stormy weather in the Atlantic and associated fronts moving up the English Channel combined to make forecasting far from easy, and decisions were finely balanced.

PH

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