Thursday Thunder: Wave #1; Metro flood advisory until 12:30pm

Update 9:50am

Storm intensity fading just a bit as they move into metro.

54 rad3.gif

Source: WxUnderground

NWS extends Urban Flood Advisory for metro until 12:30pm for metro.

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

941 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…

DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

RAMSEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 936 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LOCATED FROM NEAR

MINNEAPOLIS…TO SHAKOPEE AND GREEN ISLE. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS

MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES AN

HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO

OCCUR…ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER

CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING

INCLUDE…FOREST LAKE…MINNEAPOLIS…ST PAUL…APPLE VALLEY…

BAYPORT…BELLE PLAINE…BLOOMINGTON…BURNSVILLE…CASTLE ROCK…

COATES…COTTAGE GROVE…CREDIT RIVER…EAGAN…EDEN PRAIRIE…

EDINA…ELKO…FALCON HEIGHTS…FARMINGTON…HAMPTON…HASTINGS…

HUGO…INVER GROVE HEIGHTS…JORDAN…LAKE ELMO…LAKELAND…

LAKEVILLE…LAUDERDALE…LILYDALE…LITTLE CANADA AND MAHTOMEDI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL

CREEKS AND STREAMS…URBAN AREAS…HIGHWAYS…STREETS AND UNDERPASSES

AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE

ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS

SAFELY.

Update 9:26am:

Severe T-Storm Warning includes southwest metro until 10:15 am. Large hail and damaging winds possible with this storm.

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

922 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

SOUTHERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

SOUTHEASTERN MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

WESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

NORTHERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 917 AM CDT…RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM…CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH. THIS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW AUBURN…OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF

GAYLORD…AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…

GAYLORD…

NEW AUBURN…

WINTHROP…

ARLINGTON…

GREEN ISLE…

HAMBURG…

BELLE PLAINE…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM…PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW

INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Update 9am: NWS issues Urban Flood Advisory for Twin Cities until 11:30 am. Look for 1″ to 2″+ rainfall this morning and possible local street flooding as storms move in.

Doppler is also detecting hail up to 1″ with the storms.

MPX: Glencoe [Mcleod Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 09:12 AM CDT — yard covered

MPX: Watertown [Carver Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 09:01 AM CDT –

54 rad2.gif

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

848 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…

CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

EASTERN RENVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

NORTHERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

NORTHWESTERN RAMSEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

SOUTHERN ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

SOUTHERN MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 845 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM BUFFALO TO

HUTCHINSON. THE STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL

AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS

CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO

OCCUR…ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER

CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING

INCLUDE…BUFFALO…GAYLORD…HUTCHINSON…PLYMOUTH…

ALBERTVILLE…ANDOVER…ANOKA…ARDEN HILLS…ARLINGTON…BECHYN…

BIRD ISLAND…BISCAY…BLAINE…BROOKLYN CENTER…BROOKLYN PARK…

BROWNTON…BUFFALO LAKE…CEDAR MILLS…CENTERVILLE…CHAMPLIN…

CHANHASSEN…CHASKA…CIRCLE PINES…COKATO…COLOGNE…COLUMBIA

HEIGHTS…COON RAPIDS…CORCORAN…CORVUSO AND CRYSTAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE

ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS

SAFELY.

Wave #1 T-Storms move through this morning with heavy rain, wind & hail

Wave #2 – T-Storms likely to redevelop later PM & evening

“Slight Risk” for severe storms in Minnesota today (Source: SPC)

.50″ to 1″-2″+ rainfall by tonight in much of Minnesota

10% chance of a tornado today centered on MSP according to SPC

30% chance of damaging winds and hail

Radar: Latest Twin Cities radar loop

NOAA weather radio live stream

Thundery Thursday:

It’s back.

Call it the “June-Soon” if you like, but our wet thundery pattern returns to Minnesota today.

The T-Storms will come in waves the next few days as a series of fronts and upper air impulses cross Minnesota.

Wave #1 moves through this morning, and Wave #2 should ride in this PM/evening as T-Storms re-fire.

“Slight Risk”

54 spc risk.PNG

Source: NOAA/SPC

It’s not the most explosive situation I’ve ever seen, but there is a risk that a few of the storms will reach severe limits today. The likeiest culprits are large hail and wind damage, but there is about a 10% chance of a tornado today centered on the Twin Cities according to SPC.

54 spc tor.PNG

Source: NOAA/SPC

“Helicity”

There’s snough spin (directional wind shear) to warrant the mention of a possible tornado today.

53 helicity.PNG

Source: twisterdata.com

The highest window for a possible tornado appears to be in the afternoon hours, but a lot will depend on how quickly the debris clouds erode from the AM batch of T-Storms. If the clouds hang in longer redevelopment could be limited. If we get some PM sun things should pop pretty quickly this afternoon.

Keep an eye on the sky and an ear to your weather radio today for the possibility of watches and warnings.

PH

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