Tornado Warnings & damage in western MN; Severe storms in metro between 10pm and 1am

Update 9pm:

Here it comes. A line of severe storms will bring high winds , heavy rain and hail to the metro between 10pm and 1am.

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Source: WxUnderground

Storm reports coming in fast from western MN tonight.

MPX: Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:00 PM CDT — large tree limbs down.

MPX: Grove Lake [Pope Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 08:37 PM CDT —

MPX: 5 N Priam [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 08:35 PM CDT —

ABR: BIG Stone City [Grant Co, SD] storm chaser reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:45 PM CDT — many trees uprooted… 25 ft evergreen uprooted… power lines down… structure damage

ABR: 2 NE BIG Stone City [Big Stone Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:50 PM CDT — cramers resort – power lines down… trees down… garage damaged

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Chippewa, Lac qui Parle, Swift [MN] till 9:00 PM CDT …* AT 820 PM CDT…LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR APPLETON. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

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Update 7:55PM:

As expected, SPC has now issued a severe T-Storm watch that includes the metro until 2am.

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Source: NOAA/SPC

You can see the intense cluster of storms forming a line (and MCS) in western MN.

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Source: WxUnderground

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 405

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

755 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN MINNESOTA

WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM UNTIL

200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 404…

DISCUSSION…A WELL-FORECAST FORWARD-PROPAGATING SVR MCS WILL TRACK

GENERALLY EAST AT 40-50KT ACROSS CNTRL MN AND INTO PORTIONS OF WRN

WI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. INITIAL CELLULAR CONVECTION IS NOW SHOWING

SIGNS OF MERGING INTO A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS WRN MN AND

ERN SD. A FEW CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE BOW AND WILL

CONTINUE TO POSE SOME CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO…IN ADDITION TO

LARGE HAIL…WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 404. HOWEVER…WITH TIME…SYSTEM

WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO UPSCALE GROWTH AS BELT OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW

ALOFT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACT TO MAINTAIN BOTH MASS

TRANSPORT AND DEEP SHEAR…WHILE MESOSCALE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION

ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE EDGE OF A STRONG GREAT PLAINS CAPPING

INVERSION.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28045.

…CARBIN

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes

Likelihood Low Very Low

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind

High Moderate

Severe Hail 2″+ Hail

Moderate Moderate

Update 7:35pm

A new weather watch will likely be issued soon that may include the Twin Cities metro. A large MCS is now developing in western Minnesota, and will pick up speed as it races east this evening. Looks for the potential for damaging winds to increase in Minnesota and in the metro between 10pm and midnight.

Here’s the latest from SPC:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0727 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN

WISCONSIN

CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 404…

VALID 180027Z – 180200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 404 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY…A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 404 WITHIN THE

NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS…FOR A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS AND HAIL INTO LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION…LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO

SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE SCALE CONVECTIVE

SYSTEM IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE AND STRENGTHENING

DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR. AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET

STRENGTHENS TO 50+ KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO

THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING…AND SURFACE COLD POOLS

ASSOCIATED THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN…FORWARD

PROPAGATION MAY ACCELERATE…IN AN EASTERLY OR EAST SOUTHEASTERLY

DIRECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 01-03Z. THE 00Z SOUNDING

FROM MINNEAPOLIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR

ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR STRONG

WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF

MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL…INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN…

BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATE THIS EVENING.

MPX: 2 S Starbuck [Pope Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (M1.25 INCH) at 07:24 PM CDT —

MPX: Milan [Chippewa Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 07:00 PM CDT —

MPX: 3 NE Dawson [Lac Qui Parle Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 06:49 PM CDT — funnel halfway to the ground.

MPX: Hancock [Stevens Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (M1.25 INCH) at 07:00 PM CDT — hail lasted 5 to 7 minutes.

ABR: 5 E Wheaton [Traverse Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:52 PM CDT —

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Pope, Swift [MN] till 7:15 PM CDT …* AT 639 PM CDT…RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. IN ADDITION…SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD WITH INCREASING STRENGTH OF ROTATION. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLLOWAY…AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

ABR issues Tornado Warning for Traverse [MN] till 7:15 PM CDT …* AT 640 PM CDT…LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHEATON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

Update 5:45pm:

The latest batch of non-severe T-Showers will gradually clear the east metro this evening. The rain produced a 42 minute rain delay for the Twins game at Target Field.

Look for a quieter evening and some mixed sun.

Strong to severe storms are popping in eastern SD and western MN this evening. Tornado warnings have been issued, and keep an eye out for more. A tornado watch remains in effect until 10pm for most of west-central MN.

The latest radar/satellite/model trends favor an MCS (large T-Storm complex) moving east toward the Twin Cities between 10pm and midnight. It remains to be seen how severe this system could be, as there is slightly more stable air near the metro. There is the potential for damaging winds in the metro later tonight.

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Stay alert for the possibility of tornado warnings in west-central Minnesota this evening, and for the possibility of severe weather in the metro after 9-10pm.

PH

Update 3:45pm:

SPC issues Tornado Watch #404 for much of west central Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. The watch does not include the Twin Cities metro, but does include Alex, Willmar, Redwood Falls and Madison.

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Source: NOAA/SPC

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 404

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

345 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN MINNESOTA

SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF ABERDEEN

SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION…SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHEAST SD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS…SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL VAD/PROFILER OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW ECHO LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.

***

A warm front is pushing back into Minnesota today.

The front has sparked a few (non severe) showers earlier than anticipated, and will be the focus of a growing risk of severe weather by this evening.

Radar: Latest Twin Cities radar loop

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

SPC has placed a moderate risk for severe weather in western & southwest Minnesota, and a slight risk includes the metro.

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Source: NOAA/SPC

SPC says a watch is likely this afternoon and evening that will include SW Minnesota.

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Source: NOAA/SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0215 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…NERN SD…SWRN MN AND SERN ND

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171915Z – 172115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

SUMMARY…SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NERN SD INTO

SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON…MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 20-22Z. SUPERCELLS WITH

VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT…ALONG WITH A

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES AND OR CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

There is enough directional wind shear (spin) in the lower atmosphere over SW MN to prompt the possibility of tornadoes, and maybe a strong one of EF2 or higher.

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Source: NOAA/SPC

SPC places a 10% risk of a tornado within 25 miles of any location in western & SW Minnesota.

As the developing (possible tornadic) clusters evolve, the tendency is to produce MCS style squall lines. It’s possible a MCS may blow into the Twin Cities later tonight with the potential for damaging winds and hail, but a lower risk for tornadoes.

Keep an eye out for possible watches and subsequent warnings through tonight.

PH

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