MPR meteorologist Bill Endersen writes:
Toasty Sunday: The warm front has lifted northward past the metro area setting the stage for a hot and muggy Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the low 90s with dew points well into the 60s across much of the southern half of Minnesota. Meanwhile, the northeast will remain cool with highs just in the 60s around Duluth, the Iron Range and the Boundary Waters. Winds off Lake Superior will hold high temperatures to the 50s in downtown Duluth.
And Mother Nature will be unsettled. Scattered thunderstorms will pop up across central and southern Minnesota in the heating of the afternoon. Some of these storms might become severe, but the main risk of nasty weather will occur thanks to a cold front riding eastward out of the Dakotas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop in western Minnesota by mid afternoon, and some of them could become supercells with damaging winds and hail. By late afternoon, some of these cells will merge into clusters and lines along and ahead of the cold front and then spread into eastern Minnesota.
For the Twin Cities metro area, a few spotty thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon, but the main event of strong storms should hold off until evening. If severe weather does develop, the main risks will be for wind and hail damage. But there also will be a chance of tornadoes due to some turning expected aloft.
Storms should weaken as they advance into Wisconsin.
After the chance for severe weather abates, forecast models are indicating that rain is likely to continue with amounts of two inches or more in parts of Minnesota that remain soggy from the two to five inches of rain that fell on Wednesday night and Thursday. Flooding and flash flooding (a flood that rises rapidly, usually due to locally heavy rain) are possible. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Minnesota from the northeast to the southwest and including the metro area until 7 a.m. Monday.
So enjoy a Sunday barbecue…..but make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is turned on and programmed for your county.