USA: Warmest year on record so far; Season’s 1st 90 Friday?

Quick look forecast Today-Sunday: (Click to enlarge)

Source: Twin Cities NWS

+5.4 degrees so far in 2012 in the USA

Warmest January-April period on record since 1895 (Source NOAA)

27 years since the last "cooler than average" month globally

MPR News/KARE11 storm safety tips

24 degrees in Embarrass Wednesday morning

90 degrees in western Minnesota (and possibly the metro) Friday PM

2012: Warmest on record so far for USA:

NOAA's April State of the Climate report highights the warmest year on record to date (January-April) for the USA. Some highlights from NOAA.

•The contiguous United States mean temperature during January-April was 7.4°C (45.4°F), which is 3.0°C (5.4°F) above the long-term average and the warmest such period since national records began in 1895.

•The contiguous United States had a mean temperature of 13.2°C (55.7°F) in April 2012, which was 2.0°C (3.6°F) above the 20th century average, resulting in the third warmest April since national records began in 1895.

•The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2012 was 14.35°C (57.87°F), which is 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is ±0.08°C (0.14°F). The global temperature departure from the 20th century average and the monthly rank were the highest since November 2010, near the onset of first back-to-back La Niñas in 2010.

Source: NOAA/NCDC

Warm Front Ahead: A Shot at 90 Friday?

Today's free AC will be pushed north by an approaching warm front tomorrow. There could be a stray thunderstorm tomorrow as the front pushes in.

By Friday, the front lifts north of the metro, and temps will soar.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Highs should easily make the 90s in south & western Minnesota, with a shot at the season's 1st 90 in the metro around 4-5pm Friday afternoon.

Source: Iowa State University

Saturday night thunder?

The weekend appears to be coming into better focus. After a steamy Friday/Saturday, a cold front marching east from the Dakotas looks to trigger a wave of (possibly heavy) showers & T-Storms Saturday night into Sunday AM.

Some 1"+ rainfall totals could fall, especially north of the metro. A few of the storms could reach severe limits, but so far SPC has not placed Minnesota in a "risk area" Saturday night.

Storm Ready: MPR News/KARE11team up for severe storm safety

It's been great working with Belinda Jensen and being part of the excellent reporting from the combined MPR/KARE 11 News teams the past few weeks on the "Storm Ready?" series.

Bel & I put together a few safety tips to remind us all to be "proactive" on severe weather days in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

After talking with UM tornado researcher Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld, it's clear more than ever that it really is a question of when, and not if a strong, violent EF3+ tornado will tear a path through the metro again.

Kenny has run numbers that strongly suggest a 1965-style outbreak should occur in the metro every 40 to 50 years. The May 6, 1965 outbreak was 47 years ago.

The myth that tornadoes don't hit urban areas is just that, a myth. Last year's North Minneapolis tornado reminded us of that fact. That twister was a borderline EF1-EF2 with winds of 100-125mph.

It's hard to imagine the whole different level of devastation and EF3-EF4 tornado with wind speeds approaching 200mph will do when it hits the metro.

"Optimism Bias" is the thing we worry about most in the Weather lab, and at NWS offices around the country. "It can't happen here, to me" were the words of many people in Joplin, Missouri before last May's twister. (The Joplin tornado occurred the same day as the North Minneapolis tornado)

Taking just a minute on a beautiful day like today to prepare for that day may save your life.

PH