May begins with severe weather threat

Turning the calendar to May seems to coincide with the forecast of warmer temperatures, rising dew points and the threat for strong thunderstorms in Minnesota and the upper Midwest.

An opening act of showers and thunderstorms developed over central Minnesota overnight signaling the growing potential for a juiced up atmosphere. As low level moisture converges over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Source: NOAA SPC

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We expect some sunshine and heating to destabilize the atmosphere today. Temperatures could top 80 degrees in southern Minnesota. Southerly winds will gust to over 25 mph at times.

Visible satellite image shortly after daybreak.

Source:NOAA through College of Dupage

Experimental RUC forecast of surface temperatures and winds at 6PM CDT.

Source; NOAA/NWS

The trend has shown the main event is most likely to occur later this afternoon and tonight. Stay attentive to changing weather and the posting of severe weather watches and warnings.

Remember a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when there is the high potential for hail one inch or greater in diameter and damaging winds on the order of 60 mph or greater. When a Tornado Watch is posted you need to remain particularly attentive to warnings. Have multiple sources for weather information, including a NOAA Weather Radio.

This experimental thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the probability of thunderstorms developing between 3pm CDT and 7pm CDT.

In the Twin Cities, we closed out April with temperatures averaging two and half degrees above normal. Precipitation at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International airport totaled 3.04 inches, more than a third of an inch above normal.

--Craig Edwards