.15″ to .35″ model forecast rainfall range by Wednesday AM in metro and central MN
Spotty thunder – Just unstable enough for a clap or two of thunder overnight
Some hail? SPC does not place MN in a severe “risk” area, but mentions possibility of some (probably small) hail overnight
2nd system brings another (light) shot of rain to southern MN Thursday
Cooler 50s ahead Thursday-Saturday
80s possible next week – and severe storm potential returns
Source: Twin Cities NWS
More “welcome” rainfall:
“You’re as welcome as rain.” – Unknown saying from desert dwellers
That’s what they say in Arizona when a welcome guest arrives. Rain in the desert is a good thing. Rain in Minnesota during a drought is a welcome thing.
Our next rainmaker visits overnight into early Wednesday.
A fast moving low pressure system zips through overnight. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder are likely, and it’s cold enough aloft that some small hail is possible.
Most of the models are hinting at between .15″ and .35″ as probable rainfall totals by Wednesday AM.
The sun may peek out again Wednesday afternoon, and temps may actually crack the 60s which will feel pretty good. Wednesday afternoon and evening look fairly nice and spring like.
The next system will graze southern Minnesota on Thursday, while sunny skies prevail up north. Rainfall totals again look generally on the lighter side Thursday.
Overall, many areas in southern & central Minnesota should pick up another .50″ rain in the next 3 days.
A cool, but sunnier trend returns Friday & Saturday with highs generally in the 50s.
Warming trend next week?
It looks like the upper level winds will buckle, and a “high amplitude upper air pattern” will build a ridge of high pressure over the northern Rockies. The ridge will push increasing sunny and warm air into Minnesota starting on Sunday, lasting into Monday & Tuesday.
After some potentially frosty mornings Friday & Saturday, temperatures should warm into the 60s Sunday, 70s by Monday, and possibly soar into the 80s by Tuesday.
A wave of low pressure is forecast to develop in the Rockies and push east by mid-week. If that happens, the chances for thunderstorms and severe weather will increase.
We’ll have to see how the flow develops, but we may be on “storm watch” again by the middle of next week in Minnesota.