March Flashback: Blustery & colder; Rain to S-N-O-W Friday night?

19 degrees – wind chill at International Falls at 7am this morning

45 degree temp crash in most of Minnesota in about 36 hours

Rain system moves in Friday

Cold enough for all snow Friday night?

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Source: Twin Cities NWS

Major Pattern Change:

Well that was nice while it lasted.

This week’s 70 degree temps are long gone, replaced by a blustery attention getting cold front. You can feel the chill today, the shorts are history and jackets are now in vogue.

A cold wintery pool of air is pouring south from Canada today.

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Source: University of Illinois

Temps will struggle to reach the 40s up north today, and the 50s in the south. With the wind, it feels like March again, with May just around the corner. You had to know this might happen when we hit 80 on St. Patty’s Day.

The big question in the weather lab this Thursday is… are snowflakes far behind?

Rain to snow Friday night?

The forecast models are split on just how far north a rainy swipe will push Friday into Friday night.

The NAM is more aggressive, bringing a swath of rain from southern Minnesota up into the metro Friday night, then injecting enough cold air in the system to change a cold over to all snow. The NAM suggests possible accumulations by Saturday morning in the metro, central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

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Source: Iowa State University

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NAM model hints at possible accumulating snow by Saturday morning

Source: NOAA/wxcaster.com

The GFS holds back a bit, keeping the bulk of the moisture just south of the Twin Cities, and easing up on the colder air. The resulting solution favors less, if any significant snow for the metro area.

Either way it’s going to be chilly and potentially wet Friday night into early Saturday.

It’s just too early to make a “credible” meteorological call yet…we need to see more model data on Friday, and hopefully more agreement on a potential solution.

We really shouldn’t be shocked by the potential for snow in April, in an average April we see about 3.1″ of snowfall in the metro. For all the breathless talk of climate change, it appears there are some things in Minnesota that just don’t change. Late spring snowfall potential appears to be one of them.

As we say in the weather biz…stay tuned. And don’t be surprised if you hear a lot of different solutions in the next 24 hours!

PH

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