Freeze Warnings up one more night for most of central and southern Minnesota
Slight breezes may keep temps just a bit less frigid overnight
Pacific storm rolls through Rockies Thursday
Rain chances increase Thursday night & Friday in Minnesota
Model differences in projected rainfall totals
2nd shot of rain possible Monday & Tuesday
A few wet snowflakes possible by Tuesday?
Grass fire smoke plumes visible on Twin Cities Doppler radar
Freeze Warning Part III:
One more time, it looks like temps may just dip below freezing again in much of Minnesota Thursday morning.
Not as cold?
There are signs that Thursday morning may not be quite as cold as Wednesday AM.
The “inner isobar” or center of high pressure is sliding just east of Minnesota overnight. That’s usually where the coldest temps are in the early morning. There may be just enough pressure difference in Minnesota to create a slight easterly breeze early Thursday AM.
Any light breeze overnight may help stir up the lower atmosphere just enough to keep temps from falling as quickly and getting as cold as Wednesday morning.
In the metro, temps may just dip to or slightly below freezing in many locations. It’s quite possible we’ll avoid several hours of 25 degrees or colder in many locales. We may even hover just above freezing early Thursday morning in the inner core of the Twin Cities metro…especially in the downtown areas.
Rain Thursday night & Friday:
Chances are looking pretty good for at least a little meaningful rain Thursday night & Friday.
A Pacific storm crossing the Rockies will send the first wave of showers into western Minnesota Thursday PM and evening. Scattered showers and a few T-Storms are possible in and around Sioux Falls, Pipestone, Morris and Redwood Falls by Thursday PM.
By Thursday evening a line for showers and a few embedded T-Storms will March east through western into central MN.
The models suggest the leading edge of the rain should approach a Twin Cities to Brainerd line by around midnight Thursday night into the wee hours of Friday morning.
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder should increase overnight into Friday morning, before pulling off to the east in the metro by mid-morning Friday. Rain may linger in central and northern Minnesota through Friday PM.
The big question: How much?
Models differ on rainfall totals with this system. (So what else is new??) The GFS leans toward .20″ rainfall in the metro and most of Minnesota. The NAM has picked up steam with this system and slowed it a bit over MN…and that leads to a rainfall solution closer to .75″ or .80″…which would be really nice!
My gut? That’s the range…some areas will pick up .25″ and some lucky spots may get .80″ Can we please get the .80″ this time at the Weather Lab?
2nd shot next week?
Another shot of rain should fall by Monday & Tuesday. It’s early, but there may be just enough cold air to suggest a few wet snow flakes on the back side Tuesday.
Meteogram shows rain chances for MSP Friday & Monday-Tuesday
Source: Weather 2 Umbrella