Heres’ a new one.
Accuweather will soon start issuing a “25-day forecast.”
That’s right, we’re talking a specific detailed forecast on temps, rain/snow etc 25 days in advance.
“AccuWeather.com released a 25-Day Forecast that can help users make informed decisions about long-term plans. The AccuWeather 25-Day Forecast shows you the trends in temperature, precipitation and more, along with the forecast for a particular day.
For each day in the 25-day Forecast, you can see the forecasted high and low temperatures, the AccuWeather RealFeel® temperature, sky conditions and chance of precipitation, wind speed and direction, rain, snow and ice amounts, thunderstorm probability, cloud cover and UV index.”
Here’s the forecast for the Twin Cities. Notice there is no mention of rain Thursday, Friday, or Saturday.
Put me in the skeptical camp as to the value of this latest venture.
Forecasts beyond 5-7 days show little skill over “chance” or 50%. To put precip totals on a forecast 25 days out? Good luck with that.
The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang seems to agree with the notion that this is more of a headline grab, and less about weather science.
“No it’s not an April Fools’ joke: Accuweather is pushing the limits of weather forecasting and issuing detailed predictions extending 25 days into the future effective today.
Consider me highly skeptical about their value.
Nevermind, the skill in forecasts rapidly deteriorates beyond 5-7 days and is typically no better than judging what the weather will be based on climatology (historical averages). Today, AccuWeather delivers the forecast out to Saturday, April 28 to every zip code in the U.S.
For Washington, D.C. on 4/28, we should expect mostly cloudy skies with “showers around” and a high of 64 and low of 46. But don’t worry, if you buy this unrealistically precise forecast, just two hundredths of an inch of rain will fall – your outdoor picnic won’t be washed out.
Let’s get real for a second: I can hardly say with a lot of confidence whether 0.02″ is a good rainfall prediction for today much less more than three weeks from now.”
Source: Washington Post – Captial Weather Gang
What do you think? Do these kinds of forecast have any value to you as a user?