Reality Check: Growing frost risk ahead; Monday snow flurries?

40 degrees low temp at MSP Airport this morning

29 degrees average low temp for March 28th!

April 28th average date of last frost at MSP Airport

April 11th earliest date to plant corn and still qualify for “replant insurance” in most Minnesota counties

(Source UM Ag Extension- MN Crop News)

Thursday PM & evening - next rain chance moves in

Warm weekend ahead 70s to near 80 degrees?

Monday cold front – temps plunge into the 30s & 40s

Snow flurries possible Monday?!

12 corn.jpg

Frost-damaged corn in Renville County, MN in 2010.

Source: UM Agricultural Extension – MN Crop News

Too soon to plant: Growing frost risk ahead

That pesky “other shoe” is in mid air, and may be ready to drop to earth with a big thud.

Your friendly neighborhood meteorologist and every Minnesotan knew we were living on borrowed time….a rare March daydream that could come to a sudden, frosty end.

It looks like our chances for a frosty, or even snowy, reality check are on the rise.

It may come as early as Thursday morning. Temps will dip into the 30s early Thursday morning in most of Minnesota. We could dip as low as 36 at MSP Airport Thursday morning. That could mean frost in the outer metro suburbs and most of Minnesota north of the metro.

It shouldn’t be a big deal…the average date of the last frost at MSP Airport is April 29th!

With the average low temps still around 30 degrees this time of year, we should dip below freezing most mornings in a typical late March. But this March has been anything but typical.

Hold off on planting that corn just yet?

Check this out from the latest MN Crop News from the UM Agricultural Extension Service. Farmers may want to hold off until at least April 11th before planting those precious corn seeds into the rapidly warming soil.

(Click images for bigger, easily readable sizes)

12 ag header.PNG

12 crop 1.PNG

12 ag yield.jpg

Figure 1. Response of corn grain yield to planting date at Lamberton, MN from 1988 to 2003. Data from Bruce Potter and Steve Quiring.

Source: UM Agricultural Extension – MN Crop News

12 frosty.PNG

The latest GFS hints at sevral chances for frost or even a “hard freeze” in the next 2 weeks. Remember, it’s still March!

12 gfs freeze.PNG

Source: IPS MeteoStar

Thursday night rain shot?

An upper wave will track through Minnesota Thursday PM & evening and give us a good shot at our next, much needed rainfall.

Forecast models are hinting at between .20″ (GFS) and .70″(NAM) of rain by early Friday morning before skies begin to break Friday afternoon.

12 met rain.PNG

Source: ISU

May-June weekend ahead!

Another surge of warm air will gush north into Minnesota this weekend. Temps shoud soar into the 70s on southerly winds, and 80 is not out of the question Sunday.

12 70s back.PNG

Source: ISU

There may be a few showers & T-Storms late Sunday as a cold front moves closer.

Temps crash Monday:

A cold front will slam through Monday and bring us back to reality. Temps may struggle to get out of the 30s and 40s with a raw northwest wind…and a few snow flurries are a real possibility on the systems back side.

12 Mon low2.PNG

Source: IPS MeteoStar

It’s still early April next week folks!

PH

  • Lars

    Paul,

    There you go again. You’re supposed to be the “one shoe-ed weatherman”! So the other shoe can’t drop!

    Thanks for another educational post.

  • Disco

    The GFS has been dead wrong so many times lately it isn’t funny. I’d believe 90s around 4/11 as much as I’d believe 20s.

  • Ruth

    Remind me, what’s the temp difference between hard freeze (is that just 32?) and frost)? Thanks!