String of dry months may end with February

With potential for significant precipitation over the final four days of February, the string of six consecutive drier than normal months statewide (Aug '11 to Jan '12) is likely to come to an end. This change in weather pattern is desperately need and will be welcomed in most places. Precipitation deficits since last August have accumulated significantly and range from 6 to 9 inches less than normal in many areas.

It is interesting to note that the threat of a winter storm next Tuesday and Wednesday (Feb 28-29) may bring record-setting precipitation. How do we know that already? Leap Day (Feb 29) climate record values for Minnesota are quite meager. At MSP the record precipitation value for Leap Day is only 0.09 inches (2004), while the record snowfall is only 0.7 inches (1948). Similarly for Rochester the Leap Day records are 0.14 inches (2004) and 1.0 inches of snow (1916), while at Duluth Airport they are only 0.05 inches (2008) and 1.2 inches of snow (1972), respectively. So it will be interesting to see how many station precipitation and snowfall records around the state are eclipsed on Leap Day next week. Stay tuned.

BTW: The string of consecutive warmer than normal months will remain in tact with February marking month number 8, quite a long stretch of warmer than normal weather, especially after the string of colder than normal months that started out 2011.