Still On Track: Mostly rain metro; Heavy snow north; 50s by Monday??

1.1″ NAM model precipitation output for MSP Tuesday & Wednesday

(mostly falling as rain!)

0.7″ NAM snowfall output for MSP

7″ to 15″+ snowfall likely from Alex to Brainerd and Duluth!

Northern track confirmed on Monday evening model runs

Winter Storm Warnings in effect for much of central Minnesota

Blizzard Warnings for western Minnesota

Still On Track:

The Monday night models confirm my earlier thinking today about the track of Tuesday’s storm. It looks like yet another case of a near miss for snowfall in the metro this “winter.”

Meanwhile this storm will be serious business from the eastern Dakotas right through central Minnesota to Duluth. Heavy snowfall totals and wind will make for difficult travel in much of the region. Sustained winds of 35 mph may create blizzard conditions from near Morris to along I-94 near Alexandria Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Heavy snow band stays north:

Snowfall totals and coverage still look similar to my earlier posts today, meaning the heaviest snow will fall from Morris to Alex, near and north of St Cloud, through Brainerd to Duluth.

A cool foot could pile up in these areas by late Wednesday.

9 snow nam 22.PNG

Metro leans mostly rain: Some “backside” snow?

If anything the evening NAM nudged the system slightly further north/west. That means the warm air may get here about the same time as the precip.

It appears snow or a mix could move into the metro by morning or early afternoon Tuesday, and quickly change to mostly rain. The NAM model raises temps to 33 degrees by 11 am Tuesday, then to 38 by 3-4pm at MSP Airport…and keeps temps above freezing through Tuesday night.

That should mean rain… and mostly wet streets for the greater Twin Cities during most of this event.

We may pick up a quick coating of snow before the changeover early Tuesday, and another shot of snow from the backside “wrap around” Wednesday in the colder air behind the system. I now expect mostly rain with this system…but the metro could pick up 1″ to 2″ on the systems back side Wednesday.

February rain storm?

One of the more interesting facets of this system is the amount of rainfall that the storm may dump on the metro and areas of southern Minnesota.

Various model runs have been cranking out 1″ to 2″ of liquid precip with the storm. Monday night’s NAM trimmed this to 1.1″ for the metro.

9 gfs 2 in.PNG

GFS model: Up to 2″ of rain for metro??

If we get an inch (or two?!) of rain and 38 degrees on top of the .5″ water content snow cover from last Monday’s metro storm, there’s going to be rapid runoff and water in the streets by later Thursday.

Look for some big puddles and the potential for rare February local street flooding from the metro south by Tuesday PM rush and especially Tuesday evening & overnight!

Oh yeah, and there may be enough “lift” to generate some thunder later Tuesday and Tuesday night!

To top it off, the GFS is hitning at a major warm surge Sunday & Monday. Temps may push into the 50s by Monday!

9 gfs 50s.PNG

The Grateful Dead might have said it best about this “winter” in Minnesota. “What a long, strange trip it’s been!


  • Alison

    Hi Paul,

    Any idea what’s wrong with the NOAA forecast site? That where I usually go for the latest forecast and bulletins but their whole site is unreachable.