Iowa Clipper; Sunday track now favors central/northern MN heavy snow
Winter storm warnings out for parts of South Dakota & Iowa today
Narrow heavy snow band with Iowa Clipper
Sunday storm track favors central and northern Minnesota
6"+ still possible with storm for Fargo, Brainerd, International Falls, Ely, Duluth & North Shore
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40s possible again by Sunday March 4th?
Signs of spring on the weather maps in early March?
Clipper tracking south:
Snow is falling today from near Sioux Falls into much of northwest and central Iowa.
The heavy band of snow is fairly narrow, as illustrated by the narrow, jagged winter storm warnings in Iowa and South Dakota.
It's been interesting how the models have handled today's clipper system tracking through eastern South Dakota and Iowa.
In a word, poorly.
The models missed the track as little as 24 hours ago, with one model even suggesting heavy snow for the Twin Cities. Then models focused on southern Minnesota, and finally the system looks like it will slide even further south/west.
It's tough to forecast well with such poor model performance. We're not all knowing magical weather gurus here...we depend on accurate model data to make accurate forecasts.
Last winter every system that came though almost over performed on snowfall output.
This "winter" we're lucky if we can get half of what the models say we might get days in advance.
Sunday track shifts too!
Yesterday I talked about the trend to shift the storm track for Sunday's system ot the north. That trend is holding so far today.
The latest GFS runs track the surface low from near Redwood Falls to right over the Twin Cities. That track favors heavy snow in central and northern Minnesota, but not in the metro and southern Minnesota.
Any further shift to the north could drop snow amounts radically for the metro. It already looks like southern Minnesota may escape accumulating snow.
Stay tuned as we tweak the forecast track for Sunday!
Signs of Spring: 40s return??
We'd better get our snow in in the next 2 weeks or so because there are signs we may return to spring like warmth in March.
The GFS is hinting at upper 40s again by Sunday March 4th, and another shot of even milder air may move in in about 16 days.
Stay tuned.
PH