Warm Streak: Another “Top 10 warmest” month; Debunking “Global Cooling”

+7.1 degrees vs. average- January temps at MSP Airport

8th warmest January on record for the metro? (Pending final numbers)

4th straight “top 13 warmest month” in metro and much of Minnesota

40 today and tomorrow in the metro and southern Minnesota

+15 degrees vs. average to close January

+1 hour of daylight gained since December 21st!

2005 & 2010 tie for the warmest years on record globally

2005-2010 Deepest “solar minimum” in nearly a century

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Warm Streak: Another month, another record:

It’s hard to find winter this year in Minnesota and most of the USA.

With temps running a good +7 to +8 degrees vs. average in most of Minnesota, it looks like this will come in as the 7th or 8th warmest January on record once final numbers are tallied.

The magnitude of our current warm streak may be unprecedented. January now marks the 4th straight month of “top 13 warmest” temps in the long term (140 year) record in the metro and much of Minnesota.

-October 11th warmest on record

-November 9th warmest on record

-December 13th warmest on record

-January 7th or 8th warmest on record? (pending final numbers)

This appears to be the first time with 4 straight “top 13 warmest” months in the metro in 25 years, since February to June 1987!

USA too!

In fact this has been a very warm month nationally. Here are some January temperature departures for a number of U.S. cities.

+4.3 degrees in New York City

+5.8 degrees in Atlanta

+5.1 degrees in Kansas City

+5.4 degrees in Chicago

+3.8 degrees in Dallas-Fort Worth

+2.7 degrees in Tucson

+3.5 degrees in Los Angeles

-2.7 degrees in Seattle

Our snowless winter continues inmuch of the USA.

At least it’s cold in Alaska:

Here’s a bulletin. It’s bitterly cold in Alaska in January.

Actually it is. Temps hit -50 in Fairbanks Alaska for the first time in 6 years this past weekend. Temps plunged to -63 in Fort Yukon!

4 AK cold.jpg

The cold has caused record early ice floes in the Bearing Sea.

Warning: “Global Cooling” hype ahead:

An article carried by UK’s Daily Mail is attempting to grab some headlines this week.

The piece is full of holes, cherry picks bad data and appears to have a predisposed conclusion that is not supported by easily obtainable facts.

“The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.”

Really? Any specific data or credible peer reviwed science to support this claim?

The story goes on to claim a drop in solar activity will cause a huge decline in temperatures in the next few years.

The problem with the “solar variability” argument:

The sun’s natural variability has been widely accounted for by climate scientists in climate change scenarios.

Some continue to argue that solar variability is driving our unprecedented shift to a warmer climate, but the evidence clearly shows the opposite.

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Some facts:

-Each of the top 10 warmest years globally have occurred since 1998

-The last solar peak occurred in 2002

-2005 to 2010 featured a drop into the deepest “solar minimum” in nearly a century

-2005 & 2010 still produced the hottest years on record globally!

-2006 – 2009 are all in the hottest 13 years on record globally

(during the deep solar minimum)

-2011 was the 35th consecutive year above the 20th century global average.

-The last cooler than average year globally was 1976.

4 global to 10.png

If the sun is driving climate shifts as some suggest, then why did we see the 2 hottest years on record globally during the deep solar minimum in 2005 & 2010?

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It doesn’t fit with claims that solar variability is the driving force behind climate change.

Clearly something much more powerful is overcoming any variability in the sun’s output. 97% of climate scientists believe it is greenhouse gasses and the overwhelming evidence is on their side.

Even in a La Nina (cooler) year, 2011 still managed ot be the 11th hottest year in the global record. In fact 2011 was the hottest “La Nina” year on record!

From NOAA:

•La Niña, which is defined by cooler-than-normal waters in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns around the globe, was present during much of 2011. A relatively strong phase of La Niña opened the year, then dissipated in the spring before re-emerging in October and lasting through the end of the year. When compared to previous La Niña years, the 2011 global surface temperature was the warmest observed during such a year.

Here’s a great resuorce for those who have questions about climate science.

What about 2012?

If you look at the continued record warmth of the past 15 years, consider a fading La Nina that may transition to El Nino and consider the warm start in Janaury this 2012 may end up (again) among the hottest years on record globally.

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Stay tuned!

PH

  • Tyler

    Wow, Paul. Posting a global warming story is a great way to get the weirdos to come of the dark, sweaty corners of the Internet. Hopefully you can delete these unserious, unhelpful posts.

  • derek

    Fifty or a hundred years is such a short time in the lifetime of our sun.

  • Greg

    Debunking global cooling? or warming? given the uncertainty of all predictions, looking back a couple days and predicting ahead for several years is akin to taking last weeks stock market results and predicting the results 5 years down the road- shear narrow sightedness. Big problem calling anything a realistic average, its such a short window, sure its an average of the recorded weather history but thats a tiny part of history.

  • Achtung Grenaden!

    Great post Paul.

    Even the libertarian presidential candidate has come out and clearly said that global warming is happening and is man-made. Too bad the American Petroleum Institute dominates the political discourse.

    Warming is happening. If human technology does not advance fast enough to counter its effects, humanity will pay the price. The problem is that it will be our kids and grandkids who will pay the price, not us. We will be dead and long gone by then.

    – A libertarian, free-market fiscal conservative

  • Warren Gloutfester

    The Planet goes through cycles. We don’t have enough data (only about 100 years) to judge if the planet is warming or cooling. and then even IF we did, to take the 1000’s of variables out there and pin it on mankind is a extreme reach. As much as we all enjoying to sing about paving a parking lot, there is a heck of a lot unpaved land and sea on the planet.

    Alaska is sure darn cold this winter (-60), so is Europe.

    Warren Gloutfester

    US Govt Weather Chief.

  • John

    What is a “Weather Chief”? Is it a GS position or is it a SES position?