Snow tapers; Snowfall range 1″ to 3.5″; Better PM rush hour!

Update 9:30am:

Today proved once again it doesn’t take a foot of snow to slow down rush hour. The AM rush hour lived up to the pre system billing. Reports of one hour commutes form Woodbury to downtown St. Paul…just a few miles away were the norm this morning.

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Icy scene at Highway 212 & 494 in Eden Prairie

Snowfall reports so far (still coming in) with the system ranged between 1″ and 3.5″. The snowfall is widespread and snarled travel in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The timing of the snow came off about as expected, with most coming during the peak AM rush hour.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

911 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

…SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY WINTER STORM…

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW…AND ICE AND SLEET

CATEGORIES…THEN BY AMOUNT…AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE

FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME

—— ———————– — ————– ——-

3.50 SW ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0700 AM

3.00 3 SE ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM

3.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM

2.80 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0655 AM

2.80 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0615 AM

2.50 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0821 AM

2.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0735 AM

2.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM

2.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM

MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY

2.00 3 SW CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0851 AM

2.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0811 AM

2.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0700 AM

2.00 6 NNW AMERY WI POLK 0700 AM

2.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM

2.00 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0700 AM

2.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM

2.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM

2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM

2.00 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM

1.80 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0800 AM

1.80 2 WNW LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0700 AM

1.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0805 AM

1.50 1 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0802 AM

1.50 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM

1.50 1 S BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM

1.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0800 AM

1.50 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM

1.50 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM

1.50 3 N BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0700 AM

1.50 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM

1.30 1 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0856 AM

1.30 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM

1.30 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM

1.30 6 ESE DRESSER WI POLK 0700 AM

1.20 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0700 AM

1.10 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM

1.10 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM

1.10 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0600 AM

1.00 3 N WATERTOWN MN WRIGHT 0844 AM

1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM

1.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM

1.00 1 ENE ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0700 AM

1.00 3 N CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0700 AM

1.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM

0.80 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM

MEASURED AT MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

The snow tapers from west to east, and a much better PM commute should follow.

PH

Update 8:10am:

Latets snowfall totals here. Totals with 2nd snow band moving ionto metro now approaching or exceeding 3″ in some areas. Note MSP Airport report is over 2 hours old.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

801 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

…SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY WINTER STORM…

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW…AND ICE AND SLEET

CATEGORIES…THEN BY AMOUNT…AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE

FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME

—— ———————– — ————– ——-

3.50 SW ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0700 AM

2.80 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0655 AM

2.80 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0615 AM

2.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0735 AM

2.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM

2.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM

MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY

2.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0700 AM

2.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM

2.00 6 NNW AMERY WI POLK 0700 AM

2.00 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM

2.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM

2.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM

2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM

1.50 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM

1.30 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM

1.10 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM

1.10 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0600 AM

1.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM

0.80 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM

MEASURED AT MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

Latest Twin Cities radar shows another band of snow still to move through metro. Expect another 1″ in most areas, with snowfall tapering from west to east between 10am & noon.

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Icy and snowy commute at I-94 & Hemlock Lane in Plymouth

Update 7:30am:

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Snowy & slow Monday morning at I-94 & Johnson Parkway in St. Paul

Snow continues in most areas through this morning.

Mixed intensity snowfall with a few breaks in the snow

Slow traffic this morning in the metro

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Very slippery – numerous “incidents” reported on MNDOT website

Camera Description Details Location Impact Time

844 Crash on Exit I-94 EB @ Snelling Ave Just cleared Mon @ 06:37

816 Crash on Mainline I-94 EB @ Zane Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 06:33

6211 Crash on Mainline I-35W NB @ 37th St Just cleared Mon @ 06:23

420 Crash on Exit I-494 EB @ Nicollet Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 06:49

716 Crash on Mainline I-694 WB @ White Bear Ave Left shoulder blocked Mon @ 06:31

418 Crash on Mainline I-494 EB @ 12th Ave Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 06:23

326 Crash on Mainline U.S.169 NB @ T.H.7 Right shoulder blocked Mon @ 07:04

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Snow coming down at I-94 & McKnight Road

Snowfall totals so far: (spotty reports in so far)

2.8″ at Hutchinson

1″ at MSP Airport

1.1″ Redwood Falls

2″ Red Wing

2.1″ St. Cloud

Winter weather advisory continues until noon

-Latest Twin Cities radar

Expect snowfall of varying intensity through about 10-11am this morning before it ends from west to east! Most areas will see another 1″ to 2″ accumulation.

PH

***posted 10:30pm Sunday***

Low pressure tracking through eastern Wisconsin Monday

Snow likely in metro and eastern Minnesota between 3am and 11 am Monday

6am – 9am heaviest snowfall rates for MSP (at peak rush hour?)

1/2 mile visibility possible at snowfall peak between 6 am & 9 am Monday

3/4 inch per hour during AM rush?

2″ to 4″ snowfall range likely across metro by noon

6 to 7 hassle factor on a 1-10 scale Monday morning!

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

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Bad Timing:

I know, just what you needed to start the week on your Monday morning commute. Monday’s are hard enough already!

The most significant snowfall since New Year’s Eve should hit the metro, eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin right during rush hour Monday morning.

Winter weather advisories are flying for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

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While this may not be a major winter storm, it does look significant…and the timing may elevate the system’s impact.

Let’s break down the system:

System & track:

Low pressure deepening over eastern Iowa will curve northeast through eastern Wisconsin Monday. While this is not an ideal track for heavy snow in Minnesota, it is close enough to produce snow.

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Precip timing:

Light freezing rain and snow have been falling much of Sunday in most of Minnesota. As the low deepens overnight and early Monday, increased “forcing” and lift will increase precipitation rates. As colder air filters in, precip changes to all snow early Monday.

Snow intensity should increase in the metro and eastern Minnesota between 3am and 6am. It looks like snowfall intensity could peak in the metro between 6am and 9am. During this time we could see some moderate snow with 1/2 mile visibility.

1/2 mile visibility in moderate snow corresponds to roughly 3/4″ per hour accumulation rates. If that happens, we could pick up a good 2″ of snowfall between about 6am & 9am, right at the peak of morning rush.

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Snowfall should quickly end from west to east late AM, and clear the metro between by around noon.

Snowfall totals:

Anything can happen with this and all storms, but at least the models have come a little closer into agreement as of late Sunday night.

My best forecast at this time is for a general range of 2″ to 4″ across the metro by noon Monday.

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The best chance for 3″ or 4″ may be in the eastern metro…St. Paul & suburbs like Woodbury and Lake Elmo into western Wisconsin as the system has a little more time to wind up.

As is always the case, locally generated “random” convective type enhanced snowfall pockets may create highly variable local snow totals.

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Up north too!

Duluth and northern Minnesota will get in on the action Monday.

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Windy system

One feature of this system will be a brisk wind tending toward northwest as the day wears on. Winds should be gusting through the 15-25 mph range, and will cause blowing snow in open areas. Remember the concept of blowing snow? Yeah, I know it’s been scarce in this “non winter” so far.

Bottom Line:

Unless the storm veers east at the last minute, expect snow and blowing snow Monday morning. Rush hour will be a challenge, plan on extra time Monday!

PH

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