Roller Coaster Forecast: Thaws & cold snaps ahead
+14.3 degrees vs. average at MSP January 1-11th
-0.2 degrees vs. average January 12-24th (near average)
+6.6 degrees in January overall so far at MSP Airport
8th consecutive month of above average warmth in Minnesota!
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Temperature roller coaster ahead:
Get ready to ride the Minnesota Express.
We're moving into what meteorologists call a "high amplitude jet stream pattern" the next few weeks. The translation means big swings in temperature for Minnesota.
The jet stream has been mostly "zonal" this winter...meaning straight from east to west. It has also been displaced fairly far north for most of the winter, and that's why we've seen such mild temps.
Lately the jet has shown more valleys and ridges, and that's enabled colder air to come south fomr Canada. This is illustrated in temperature data for MSP so far in January.
The first 11 days of the month brought temps and incredible +14 degrees vs. average in the metro and most of Minnesota. Then the jet dipped south, and the season's first sub zero air arrived. Temps since then have run almost right on average overall.
The dipsy doodle jet stream pattern looks to be very "progressive" over the next two weeks. This should allow ridges to build up and mild Pacific air to return, punctuated by brief cold intrusions form Canada.
We get out first thaw this week, then a shot of colder air moves in this weekend. Temps will dip below zero up north this weekend, and it appears to me we'll have a shot at getting close to zero Sunday morning in the metro.
The next thaw rolls in next week, when temps could push 40 in southern Minnesota and possibly the metro by Tuesday. The following week could feature big temps swings between mild and colder air.
The one factor that's different this time is that we do have some snow cover. Snow melt adds moisture ot the lower atmosphere, and that can keep more clouds around...possibly fogging us up at night and limiting temp rises during the day.
Overall temps look to average out warmer over the next two weeks.
This would continue the now 8 month long trend of significantly above average temps in Minnesota.
Could that signal an early spring, and one of the mildest, shortest winters on record?
Stay tuned...
PH