Janaury +12 so far; 40s again Monday? Open water on Mille Lacs

"On January 5 at about 3pm I saw a live mosquito! I could hardly believe my eyes, but I did a double-take and got a good look and it definitely was one."

Posted by Katie Parke-Reimer on Updraft | January 6, 2012 11:09 AM

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+12 degrees - January temps vs. average so far at MSP Airport

30s this weekend - Cooler but still +10 degrees vs. average

40s again by Monday and probably Tuesday

30 degrees colder late next week?

5 above in the metro next Thursday & Friday morning?

Open water on parts of Lake Mille Lacs on January 6th!

Seasonal confusion continues:

It's only the first week of January and this is already one crazy weather year.

So far January is picking up right where December left off with excessively mild temps. With 540s again widespread Friday, the Twin Cities is now running a full 12 degrees above average so far for the first 6 days of January!

After posting the first 60s ever recorded in Minnesota this early in the year we cool down a little this weekend. Cooler yes, but I just can't seem to find the right keys these days to type C-O-L-D.

Our weekend cool front would be considered a "January Thaw" in most years. But this is clearly not most years.

40s return Monday!

It looks like another shot of Chinook modified mild Pacific will sweep into Minnesota by Monday. Without snow cover, temps should again respond into the 40s by Monday afternoon. The mild air should linger into Tuesday.

Semi-Arctic front arrives Wednesday?

The GFS and other models are finally holding form on the notion that colder air may actually make it to Minnesota late next week. The GFS pushes a "semi-arctic" front south Wednesday, and builds colder than average high pressure into Minnesota through next Friday.

It appears the front may come through mostly dry at this point, but arctic fronts are notorious for "paving the way" for cold air with at least a dusting of powdery snowfall ahead if the system.

If the models verify, we could challenge the coldest readings so far this winter season in Minnesota by Thursday or Friday. We bottomed out at 5 degrees above zero in the Twin Cities on December 9th, the coldest temps so far this winter season.

It appears the cold may be short lived. What else would we expect in this "year without winter?" Temps may moderate back into the 30s by next weekend.

But there are signs of more reinforcing arctic type air the following week.

Stay tuned.

The crack on Mille Lacs: The saga continues

This is not the year to assume safe ice on Minnesota lakes.

NASA's MODIS Terra high res visible satellite images continue to show long cracks in the patchy ice quilt that is Lake Mille Lacs this winter.

Local reports confirm open water and the ever shifting ice conditions this year.

"Friday. January 6th, 2012

About 10:45 this morning, the main lake ice, with a stiff NW wind behind it, set sail again to the SE. There is several 100 yards wide of open water from Garrison to Knox Point, and assumable, south of Garrison down the west side.

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Posted on: Today 11:39:08

You can still plainly see the crack extending west from big point. People not familiar with the ice conditions could certainly find themselves in a precarious situation should a stiff southerly or easterly wind break the ice sheet from there. Here's to hoping for bitterly cold temps to get the pond locked up.

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Posted on: Yesterday 14:36:32

You know I was driving back from Upper Red Monday and saw this crack first hand! MY GOD was all I could I say. Than upon closer look at it, from just north of Garrison, there were people setup with portables not more than 100 feet from this open water! My god are people nuts!? I actually saw cars and trucks on the ice out of Garrison. Does anyone watch the news, my feelings are this ice in this area is dangerous, drive to the south, they say it's safe down there!

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Posted on: Yesterday 15:02:14"

Stay safe in this crazy ice year!

PH