-11 this morning: Models say -23 Feb 3rd; Friday snow ahead!

-11 at MSP Thursday morning (coldest so far this winter)

-16 Jan 21, 2011 (coldest temp at MSP last winter)

-23 GFS forecast for MSP February 3rd (06Z-midnight model run)

1st week of February may be the coldest week of winter

-26 at Fosston & Orr & Crane Lake & Babbitt this morning

-24 at Embarrass, International Falls, Cook this morning!

Coating to 2″ possible snow range in metro Friday

3″ to 6″ possible along I-90 corridor and northern Iowa Friday

Weather drama at MSP as the clock struck midnight last night!

Details from the Twin Cities NWS:

The Twin Cities Tied a Record for the Latest Below Zero Temperature

“It is official… The Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport recorded their first below zero temperature shorrtly before midnight. The temperature dropped to -1 at 11:25 PM and stayed at -1 through midnight. Therefore, we tied the record for the latest “below zero temperature” set in 1889 and 2002. The official time of the low will be recorded as 11:59 PM, since the official time of the low is the latest time of occurence on a calendar day.”

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Coldest in nearly a year:

Now that was cold.

Finally some real winter weather in Minnesota. The -11 at MSP Thursday morning was the coldest temps in 11 months. We bottomed out at -11 on Feb 10th, 2011. It’s also been almost exactly 1 year since we saw last winter’s coldest temp of -16 at MSP on January 21st, 2011.

In case you were wondering our -11 this morning is not even close to today’s record low of -34 set in 1970.

Northern Minnesota felt the chill to the tune of -20 to -25 this morning.

At least we’re making some serious ice on Minnesota lakes today!

Winter’s coldest air still ahead?

As I said earlier this week, it looks like this week’s cold snap may not be the coldest air mass we see in Minnesota this winter.

There is still bitterly cold air trapped over Alaska, where temps have been consistently running -30 to -50 for weeks.

That air has to come south sooner or later and the GFS is showing signs that the first week of February may bring an even colder air mass south. The overnight (06z) run of the GFS cranks out a low temp of -23 on February 3rd for MSP. Ugh!

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Let’s see if that bitterly cold holds up over the next week or so.

We may see a brief thaw in between on January 26th & 27th.

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Clipper Parade: Friday & Sunday

Latest indications are we could get clipped by the northern edge of Friday’s clipper in the metro. The heaviest snow band still looks to be along I-90 where 3″ to 6″ could fall.

Latest model runs print out some light snow for the metro Friday.

The NAM is cranking out 1.1″ of snowfall for MSP Friday. The GFS likes 1.6″

It looks like another N-S range across the metro with less snow north and more south. I want to see tonight’s model runs, but at this point I’d say a range of a coating to 2″ seems like the most likely outcome Friday.

Snow should begin in southwest Minnesota tonight, and move into the metro by rush hour Friday. Expect some slick roads Friday in southern Minnesota and the metro.

Sunday’s system looks more widespread, and could deliver another couple of inches to much of Minnesota. There may be another chance of snow next Tuesday. Overal we may pick up several inches of snow in the next week!

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NAM model snowfall output suggests several inches in the next 84 hours.

Stay tuned!

PH