Wintery Preview: Cold now, Saturday snow north? 10th warmest year?

Updraft Headlines:

Paul & Babe webcam shows fresh coating of snow Tuesday evening in Bemidji!

Wind chill factor between 15 and 25 degrees Wednesday AM!

19 degrees in the metro by Thursday morning?

50 degrees possible in the metro by Friday afternoon

60 miles north - latest GFS track trend for Saturday snow potential

70% Weather Lab estimate for accumulating snow from Brainerd to the Iron Range and Duluth by Saturday night

40% Weather Lab estimate for 1" of snow at MSP by Sunday at this point

8th warmest October on record globally according to NOAA

10th warmest year on record globally so far in 2011

Season's coldest air mass invades:

Wind chill is back! You can feel it in the air. A bracing northwest wind will linger into Wednesday before easing late in the day.

The coldest air of the season is funneling southward from now snow covered Canada. With temps in the 20s and 30s in Minnesota and brisk northwest winds the wind chill will make it feel ike teens and even single digits north!

Though the kids will protest, you'll want to send them out the door with the "real" winter jacket Wednesday!

Would be even colder with snow cover!

Bare ground still covers Minnesota. Last year at this time a thick blanket of 8" to 14" of snow covered much of the state.

Temperatures may dip into the low 20s or even teens in the metro early Thursday morning, but if we had snow cover we would easily be 10 degrees colder!

The radiative and reflective properties of snow cover make a big difference in temperatures. We're adding about 10 degrees with the lack of snow cover this November compared to last year.

Roller Coaster: A shot at 50 Friday?

Even with our sun angle and intensity now only equal to late January, we'll rebound quickly on southerly winds Friday. 40s will return, and temperatures without snow cover may make a run at 50 in southern Minnesota!

Potenital Saturday snow maker: Slower and trending north

The latest GFS model runs have been trending Saturday's low pressure system about 60 miles farther north. That means the rain snow line may shift from the northwest metro to near St. Cloud. The result of that shift would be mostly rain and very little snow for the metro.

The best shot for accumulating snow still looks to be north of a Fergus Falls to Brainerd to Duluth line. Heaviest totals would be pushed to the Iron Range cities and Ely.

The track can and probably will shift again. Stay tuned as we track the system day by day as the modes tweak the forecast track..

****It's still too early to credibly start pinning down snowfall totals for various cities in Minnesota, but be aware there is a good chance of accumulating snow in central and northern Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night!****

NOAA: 8th warmest October on record

NOAA reports that October was the 8th warmest on record globally since 1880.

Arctic Sea Ice was also the 2nd lowest on record for October, 23.5% below average.

Global temperature highlights: October

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for October 2011 was the eighth warmest on record at 58.14 F (14.58 C), which is 1.04 F (0.58 C) above the 20th century average of 57.1 F (14.0 C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.13 F (0.07 C).

•The global land surface temperature was 1.98 F (1.10 C) above the 20th century average of 48.7 F (9.3 C), making this the 2nd warmest October on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.20 F (0.11 C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across Alaska, Canada, most of Europe and Russia, and Mongolia. Cooler-than-average regions included the southeastern United States, most of southern and western South America, parts of Algeria and Libya, part of Eastern Europe, and far Southeast Asia.

•The global ocean surface temperature was 0.70 F (0.39 C) above the 20th century average of 60.6 F (15.9 C), making it the 11th warmest October on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.07 F (0.04 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the north central and northwest Pacific, the northeast Atlantic, and portions of the mid-latitude Southern oceans.

•The United Kingdom marked its warmest October since 2006 and eighth warmest in the last 100 years, at 3.6 F (2.0 C) above the 1971-2000 average.

•Several locations in Argentina experienced their coolest October in five decades.

So far 2011 is the 10th warmest on record globally. This is significant because La Nina has been active, and another "top 10 warmest year" may occur in spite of the oceanic cooling effects from La Nina.

Global temperature highlights: Year to date

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January - October period was 0.95 F (0.53 C) above the 20th century average of 57.4 F (14.0 C), making it the 10th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.16 F (0.09 C).

•The January - October worldwide land surface temperature was 1.53 F (0.85 C) above the 20th century average, the sixth warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.34 F (0.19 C). The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.74 F (0.41 C) above the 20th century average and was the 12th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.07 F (0.04 C).

•La Niña conditions strengthened during October 2011. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011/2012.

•Monthly rainfall across Spain was 35 percent below average, the driest October since 1998.

Stay tuned on Saturday's snow potential, and stay warm in the meantime!

PH