Sunny November! 50’s Thanksgiving; Snow chances next week?

Updraft Headlines:

Dahlias bloom at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chanhassen in August.

(Gratuitous photo by Paul Huttner)

+3.1 degrees vs. average temperature at MSP for November so far

57% of possible sunshine this month in the metro

39% of possible sunshine in November on average

#1 - November is the cloudiest month of the year in Minnesota on average

54 - 58 degrees on Thanksgiving Day in southern Minnesota?

13 years - average interval between reaching 50 degrees on Thanksgiving at MSP

4 number of time we've hit 50 on T-Day in the past 13 years

(if we hit 50 Thursday)

Cottage soaks up early November sun in Deephaven

Sunny November?

I know, it's been gray for the past two days. But believe it or not this has been a sunnier than average November.

November is typically our cloudiest month of the year in Minnesota. We manage to squeeze out only 39% of possible sunshine in an average November.

By my (unofficial) count we've had 12 of 21 days with partly to mostly sunny skies this month. That's about 57% of possible sunshine, give or take. I'll take it!

It's gray today but hang in there, the sun should return tomorrow and Thanksgiving Day!

Warm Turkey?

All systems appear to be go for a mild Thanksgiving Day in Minnesota. In fact, this may be the mildest T-Day in 13 years, since we hit 58 in 1998.

If everything works out right, a sunny sky, mild southwest breezes and mostly bare gorund should help boost temps well into the 50s Thanksgiving afternoon. I would not be shocked to see 54 to 58 degrees in the metro by around 3pm Thursday. I'm also forecasting a nap late Thursday afternoon.

Black Friday also looks mild, and then cooler weather slides in for Saturday and Sunday.

Thanksgiving Day climatology is all over the mep in Minnesota. Last year we awoke to 6 degrees in the metro and struggled to a high of 27. It looks like most of Minnesota will be a good 25 to 30 degrees milder this year.

If you look back to 1891 we hit 50 on T-Day about once every 13 years. But since 1998 we've hit 50 or better 4 times, assuming thermometers crack 50 this Thursday!

Snow chances: Saturday & Tuesday?

There appears to be two chances for snow in the next week.

The first comes Saturday, as low pressure develops in the Upper Midwest. Rain changing to light snow Saturday is possible. Right now any accumulations look light.

The second system may be more interesting next Tuesday. A developing "retrograding" upper low may spin up over Wisconsin, and kick snow back to the west into Minnesota.

These "cut-off" lows are notoriously fickle, and difficult to pin down. If the GFS model pans out, there could be significant accumulations in western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.

Stay tuned!

PH