Update: GFS backs off snow chances next week?

Update 2:35pm:

Okay the GFS 12Z (7am) run is tracking next weeks potential system a little further south & east, but still keeping enough cold air in for some snow. Here’s the latest meteogram for MSP.

8 gfs 2.PNG

We’re not out of the woods yet for snow, and I expect several more solutions in the coming days!

Stay tuned!

PH

***

You really have to watch the maps closely this time of year.

In an interesting shift overnight, the GFS model is painting a picture that may include accumulating snow for Minnesota next week. If early Thursday model runs verify, that snow may hit close to the Twin Cities metro area.

9 snow.PNG

GFS model for next Wednesday: Low pressure in Wisconsin may be cold enough for snow in Minnesota. Colors indicate precip totals…around .85″ liquid for MSP?

The models paint a picture with temperatures possibly marginally cold enough for snow in Minnesota. If the GFS is right, accumulating snow may hit close to home next week. Take this with a huge shaker of salt at this pioint, but the overnight GFS is painting some eye openeing numbers for snowfall at MSP next Wednesday!

(click to enlarge image)

9 gfs snow.PNG

GFS model paints (several inches of?) accumualting snow for MSP next Wednesday.

In fact the overnight GFS run has shifted an active storm track into Minnesota in the next 12 days. The model sets up a southwest flow with the jet stream dealing 4 separate low pressure systems from the southwest USA and tracks them toward the Midwest, including Minnesota.

The first system this weekend looks to track into northwest MNinnesota, keeping us on the mild side of the system. That could mean a shot at 60 degrees Saturday, and a realtively mild but windy deer opener in Minnesota this weekend.

The models hint at cold rain or wet snow possible

-Next Wednesday November 9th

-November 12th

-November 15th

***It’s too early to tell if this trend is credible yet. Keep in mind that a week in advance is too early to credibly forecast winter storms and snowfall totals with any credible accuracy.***

Also, the trend is based on just one GFS model run from overnight do far. Subsequent runs may shift the track and or temperature profile of incoming systems. They may miss Minnesota and or be warm enough for rain instead of snow.

One thing that seems credible in the model runs is the notion that an active upper air wave pattern may put Minnesota and the Upper Midwest into a more active storm track the next 10 days or so.

As we say in the weather biz….stay tuned!

PH

  • cy

    Seems like the pattern is shifting. SPC shows the severe season is about to get started up. Euro also showing a favorable track for the metro. One to watch.